基于收入成本评价的公交票价动态调整方法研究  

A Dynamic Adjustment Method of Bus Fare Based on Revenue-Cost Evaluation

作　　者：余坤 钟朝晖[2] 赵向宇 YU Kun;ZHONG Zhaohui;ZHAO Xiangyu(Chongqing Communications Planning Surverying&Designing Institute,Chongqing 400000,China;China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Beijing Communications Technology Consulting Service Co.,Ltd.Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁长江交通设计集团有限公司,重庆401120 [2]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [3]交科院技术咨询(北京)有限公司,北京100029

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第3期79-85,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20192706)。

摘　　要：本文提出了一种公交人次票价动态调整的计算方法,以“收入成本比”稳定性评价作为票价调整的优化目标,推导人次票价变化率的公式,在仅考虑人工、燃料和CPI等成本变动因素基础上,增加了客运量、运营里程和企业运营效率等因素;然后,利用公交企业运营成本测算标准,将企业成本变化因素转变为社会成本变化因素;最后,利用系统动力学的理论方法分析了“成本-收入-亏损-补贴”的联动关系,基于全成本核算财政补贴模式的假设,建立了公交财政补贴模型。通过实例分析不同的人次票价调整方法的仿真结果,结果表明:公交人次票价调整方法在调整后均实现了“收入成本比”的稳定不变,证明本方法更能体现了乘客和政府承担公交成本的公平性和一致性。This article proposes a dynamic adjustment method of bus fare.Firstly,the stability evaluation of farebox recovery ratio is taken as the optimal objective of bus fare adjustment,and the formula for change rate of bus fare is derived.On the basis of only cost changes such as labor,fuel,and CPI being considered,factors such as passenger traffic,operating mileage,and corporate operating efficiency have been involved.Afterwards,the corporate cost change factors are transformed into the social cost change factor by using the operating-cost calculation standard of public transport company.Finally,the theoretical method of System Dynamics is adopted to analyze the"cost-income-loss-subsidy"linkage relations,the bus financial subsidy model is established based on the assumption of the bus full-cost accounting,financial subsidy method.The actual bus data and predicted model parameters are applied to analyze simulation results of adjustment method of different bus fares through actual examples.The result shows the dynamic adjustment method of bus fare in this paper has achieved the stability of farebox recovery ratio,which proves that adjustment method can better reflect the fairness and consistency of public transportation cost sharing between passenger and government.

关 键 词：城市交通 动态调整方法 系统动力学 公交票价 收入成本比 

分 类 号：F570.7[经济管理—产业经济]