湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构施工风险评估  

Risk assessment of water conveyance tunnels construction by shield in collapsible loess area

作　　者：张勇[1] 刘琛 牟艳祥 ZHANG Yong;LIU Chen;MOU Yanxiang(School of Management,Xi′an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi′an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第4期184-191,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JLM-52)。

摘　　要：为了提高针对湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构法施工安全评估的可靠性,从人员管理、机械材料、施工技术、施工环境4个方面构建较为完善的施工安全风险评估指标体系;利用灰色-DEMATEL方法对中心度进行处理得到风险指标权重;以风险发生概率和风险损失程度两个维度为基础构建二维云评估模型,其中发生概率由主、客观方法相结合来确定,损失程度通过改进雷达图法从人员伤亡、经济损失、工期延误、功能缺陷和环境影响5个方面来综合确定。将该评估模型运用到引汉济渭工程X输水隧洞盾构法施工项目的安全评估中。结果表明:该项目施工风险评估等级为Ⅱ级,施工安全风险程度较小,评价结果符合工程实际,验证了该评估模型的可行性和有效性。研究成果可为湿陷性黄土区类似输水隧洞盾构法施工安全风险评估提供借鉴和参考。In order to improve the safety assessment reliability of water conveyance tunnel construction by shield in collapsible loess area,firstly a relatively perfect construction safety risk assessment index system was constructed from four aspects:personnel management,mechanical materials,construction technology and construction environment.Secondly,the grey-DEMATEL method was used to process the centrality to obtain the risk index weight.Thirdly,based on the two dimensions of risk occurrence probability and risk loss degree,a two-dimensional cloud assessment model was constructed.The occurrence probability was determined by the combination of subjective and objective methods,and the loss degree was determined by improving the radar chart method from five aspects:casualties,economic losses,schedule delay,functional defects and environmental impact.Finally,the evaluation model was applied to the safety assessment of X water conveyance tunnel construction of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project.The application results showed that the construction risk was small,only gradeⅡ,which were in line with the engineering practice,verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model.The research results can provide reference for the safety risk assessment of similar water conveyance tunnels construction by shield in collapsible loess area.

关 键 词：输水隧洞 盾构施工 风险评估 湿陷性黄土区 灰色-DEMATEL 二维云模型 

分 类 号：TV672[水利工程—水利水电工程]