经济高质量发展的“引擎”——高端制造业发展、人力资本配置和经济增长  

Engine of High-quality Economic Development:High-end Manufacturing Development,Human Capital Allocation and Economic Growth

作　　者：朱兰 吴紫薇 王勇 ZHU Lan;WU Ziwei;WANG Yong(Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Council for Social Security Fund of the People’s Republic of China;Institute of New Structural Economics,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [4]全国社会保障基金理事会 [5]北京大学新结构经济学研究院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第4期48-67,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室(2024SYZH004);国家社会科学基金项目(22VRC082);2023年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2023J2DZ017)的资助。

摘　　要：比较东亚和拉美不同增长绩效的经济体,本文发现东亚经济体实现工业化过程中推动制造业高端化且高技能劳动力流向高端制造业,而拉美经济体出现制造业“低端锁定”且高技能劳动力更多流向服务业。为对上述产业结构变迁与劳动力配置现象提供一个统一的解释,本文构建包含劳动力异质性的三部门一般均衡模型,刻画不同行业高技能劳动力配置下的产业结构变迁路径,发现“基础制造业-高端制造业”路径下的人力资本积累和经济增长绩效明显优于“基础制造业-服务业”路径。然后,通过模型模拟分析不同政策效果,发现动态调整的产业政策比固定产业政策更有效,单一的教育政策结合产业政策更有效。本文不仅拓展了产业结构转型相关理论研究,突出高端制造业发展和人力资本配置的重要性,也为深入推进新型工业化、促进产业链人才链深度融合提供理论支撑和决策参考。Comparing the divergent growth performance of East Asian and Latin American economies,this study finds that East Asian economies have successfully promoted the upgrading of their manufacturing sector,while the Latin American economies have experienced a“low-end lock”in manufacturing.Moreover,compared with the Latin American economies,the relative density of highskilled labor in high-end manufacturing was higher in East Asian economies.This contradicts the general intuition that“high-income economies have a higher proportion of service industries and a higher total number of high-skilled labor,and the proportion of high-skilled labor in the service industry should also be relatively higher.”This leads to the phenomenon that this study aims to reveal and answers the following question:Why do economies with intensive high-skilled labor in both high-end manufacturing and service industries experience better growth performance?This study constructs a three-sector general equilibrium model encompassing basic manufacturing,high-end manufacturing,and services and incorporates labor heterogeneity.Due to entry barriers in highend manufacturing,the allocation of high-skilled labor across industries leads to two distinct transition paths—“basic manufacturing-high-end manufacturing”and“basic manufacturing-services.”These paths give rise to different trajectories of human capital accumulation and economic growth.The mechanism highlights the development of high-end manufacturing and the allocation of human capital.Specifically,if the threshold for developing high-end manufacturing is lower than the technical level of high-skilled labor in the economy,high-skilled labor will flow into high-end manufacturing,leading the economy to embark on the industrial upgrading path of“basic manufacturing-high-end manufacturing,”leading to more durable and stable economic growth.Conversely,if the threshold for developing high-end manufacturing is too high relative to the technical level of the economy’s high-skilled la

关 键 词：高端制造业 人力资本配置 产业结构变迁 有为政府 

分 类 号：F401[经济管理—产业经济]