通货膨胀预期与企业并购重组:协同效应还是市值管理  

Inflation Expectations and Corporate M&A and Reorganization:Synergistic Effect or Market Value Management?

作　　者：方培杰 朱思源 FANG Pei-jie;ZHU Si-yuan(Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433;Chasing Financial,Changsha 410015,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]湖南财信金融控股集团有限公司,湖南长沙410015

出　　处：《当代财经》2024年第4期71-84,共14页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“城市落户门槛对企业投资的影响及对策研究”(L22CJY013)。

摘　　要：并购重组是企业发展和国民经济结构调整的助推器,在全球通货膨胀(以下简称通胀)抬升的背景下,中国企业的并购重组受通胀的影响值得关注。基于中国2007—2021年通胀预期变化与A股非金融公司并购重组行为开展实证研究,结果表明:第一,通胀预期上升时,企业股权价值因为投资者受通胀幻觉的影响被低估,促使企业发起并购交易以修复估值;第二,通胀预期抬升时,企业发起的并购交易主要是非产业并购,在并购交易发起频数增多的同时,并购达成的概率却降低,并购交易后,市场绩效有所提升,但经营绩效下跌,且更可能在三年内计提商誉减值,这意味着企业主要出于市值管理而非追求协同效应发起并购交易;第三,对于沪港通企业和融券余额更高的企业,管理层机会主义得到遏制,投资者通胀幻觉得以改善,企业出于市值管理动机发起并购交易的倾向减弱。因此,推动企业并购重组助力经济高质量发展,需优化预期管理,减少信息不对称,有序推进资本市场开放,完善卖空机制,通过监管引导并购重组瞄准产业升级的方向。M&A and reorganization serve as catalysts for corporate development and the adjustment of the national economic structure.Against the backdrop of rising global inflation,the impact of inflation on the mergers and acquisitions of Chinese companies is worth paying attention to.Based on the anticipated shifts in inflation from 2007 to 2021 and the M&A behaviors of non-financial companies listed on the A-share market in China,this paper conducts an empirical study.The findings reveal the following:firstly,when the inflation expectations increase,corporate equity will be undervalued due to the impact of inflation illusion on the investors,prompting firms to initiate M&A transactions to restore valuation;secondly,at times when inflation expectations are heightened,enterprises predominantly engage in non-industrial rather than industrial M&As.Although the frequency of initiated M&A deals escalates,the probability of their achievements decreases.After the M&A deals,the market performance somewhat shows improvements,whereas the operational performance experiences a decline.There is an increased likelihood of goodwill impairment charges within three years,suggesting that enterprises are primarily driven by market value management motives instead of the pursuit of synergistic effects when undertaking M&As;thirdly,for companies involved in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and those with higher margin debt balances,the managerial opportunism is mitigated,the inflation illusion of investors is ameliorated,and the propensity to commence M&A transactions based on market value management incentives is reduced.Therefore,to propel high-quality development through corporate M&A activities,it is imperative to optimize expectation management,minimize informational asymmetries,advance the orderly opening of capital markets,refine short-selling mechanisms,and steer M&A activities towards the direction of industrial upgrading through regulatory guidance.

关 键 词：通胀预期 并购重组 通胀幻觉 市值管理 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]