基于多退耕情景的吉林省中部黑土区固碳潜力与增汇格局研究  

Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential and Sinking Pattern Under Multi-level Fallowing Scenarios in Central Jilin Province

作　　者：胡冰清 李文博 祝元丽 Hu Bingqing;Li Wenbo;Zhu Yuanli(College of Earth Sciences,Jilin University,Changchun 130061,China;School of Humanities and Law,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110169,China;School of Public Policy and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地球科学学院,长春130061 [2]东北大学文法学院,沈阳110169 [3]中国矿业大学公共管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第3期230-238,246,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42001223,42201271)。

摘　　要：[目的]以农业固碳增汇为目的,结合耕地资源稳定性识别需开展生态退耕的地块,探究典型黑土区未来多梯度退耕情景下的固碳潜力与增汇格局,为优化黑土区耕地空间适宜性和丰富东北地区农业减排固碳理论提供依据。[方法]基于吉林省中部黑土区2005年和2020年土地利用数据,通过PLUS-Markov耦合模型和InVEST模型模拟多梯度退耕情景,并对研究区碳储量及因生态退耕所引起的固碳潜力变化及增汇情况进行测算。[结果](1)设定自然发展情景及A,B,C共3类退耕情景,模拟强度递增。在A,B,C情景下需要退掉的耕地面积分别为1.5×10^(4) hm^(2),2.65×10^(4) hm^(2),3.8×10^(4) hm^(2),主要受社会经济因子驱动较强,约占总贡献度的30%。从退耕类型上看,退耕还林范围分布较广,主要集中在四平市、东辽县和长春市等地,退耕还草规模较小但呈现空间集聚特征,多在双辽市和农安县等地;(2)随模拟退耕强度增大,研究区碳储量呈上升趋势,在退耕情景A,B,C下预计分别达到7.26×10^(6) Mg, 7.27×10^(6) Mg和7.27×10^(6) Mg,整体呈现由东南部向西北部递减的分布特征,其中高碳汇地区主要集中分布于舒兰市、永吉县和桦甸市等地。(3)不同退耕情景下,研究区增汇格局相对稳定,多集中在研究区东部和南部。综合权衡粮食安全因素和农业固碳需求,建议参考退耕情景B开展生态退耕,四平市、东辽县和长春市将成为吉林省中部黑土区重点农业固碳增汇单元,预计可增加碳储量分别达到1 963.4 Mg, 806.48 Mg与703.06 Mg。[结论]吉林省中部黑土区农业固碳减排依赖于漫川漫岗区的边际不稳定耕地退耕还林,应科学权衡耕地的产能状况和生态效应布局退耕工程、制定退耕时序,同时结合全域土地综合整治调节粮食产能,以达到提升黑土区耕地空间适宜性和农业系统可持续性的目的。[Objective]In an attempt to increase carbon stock in the agricultural sector,the marginalized and unstable lands were identified as the fallow plots,carbon sinks due to ecological fallowing under future multi-gradient fallowing scenarios were explored to provide an crucial basis for arranging the fallow of marginalised cropland and enriching the theory of carbon sequestration in the northeast black soil region.[Methods]Based on the 2005 and 2020 land use data in the central black soil area of Jilin Province,a multi-gradient fallow scenario was simulated by the PLUS-Markov coupled model and the InVEST model,and the carbon stock and the potential for carbon sequestration and sink enhancement due to ecological fallow in the study area were measured.[Results](1)The natural development scenario and three fallowing scenarios A,B,and C with increasing intensity were set in this study.The marginal unstable farmland fallow in scenarios A,B,and C were 1.5×10^(4) hm^(2),2.65×10^(4) hm^(2),and 3.8×10^(4) hm^(2),respectively.These scenarios were mainly driven by socio-economic factors,accounting for about 30%of the total contribution.In terms of fallow types,the returning-to-forest areas widely distributed,mainly concentrated in the places such as Siping,Dongliao,and Changchun,while the returning-to-grass areas were smaller but exhibited spatial aggregation features,which were mainly located in the places such as Shuangliao and Nong′an.(2)As the simulated fallow intensity increased,the carbon stock in the study area also indicated an increasing trend.Under fallow scenarios A,B,and C,the estimated carbon storage would reach up to 7.26×10^(6) Mg,7.27×10^(6) Mg和7.27×10^(6) Mg,respectively,which decreased from the southeast and the northwest.The areas with high carbon sinks concentrated mainly in areas such as Shulan,Yongji,and Huadian.(3)Under different fallow scenarios,the carbon sink pattern in the study area remained stable,mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern parts.Considering the factors of food securit

关 键 词：生态退耕 碳储存 InVEST模型 碳增汇 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]