基于生产核算流程的产畜类资产动态存栏价值预测  

Dynamic Inventory Value Prediction of Livestock Assets Based on Production Accounting Process

作　　者：刘春学[1] 李云煜 陈诗杰 夏娟 Liu Chunxue;Li Yunyu;Chen Shijie;Xia Juan(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650000;Beijing Yachao Assets Appraisal Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650000)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学,云南昆明650000 [2]北京亚超资产评估有限公司,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2024年第2期70-80,F0003,共12页Appraisal Journal of China

摘　　要：随着现代畜牧业的快速发展,产畜类资产价值评估日益增长。本文将产畜类资产的生产核算流程融入收益法数据预测模型,进行生产阶段划分,根据生产核算流程对产畜类资产的动态存栏价值模型进行构建,预测其动态存栏数及动态存栏价值,反映其成本性态变化。将成本核算制度融入预测模型得出的动态存栏价值不仅可以反映营业成本等数据,还可以直接输出付现口径、非付现口径、全口径的各阶段牛只成本。测算动态存栏价值满足了企业价值评估对企业自由现金流的预测需求,便于企业对未来产畜类资产的存栏、产犊、出栏数量等进行合理把控,可与企业日常经营管理实现有效结合,为企业实现财务预算控制提供参考。With the rapid development of modern husbandry,the valuation of livestock assets is increasing.This article integrates the production accounting process of livestock assets into the income method prediction model.By dividing the production stages and constructing a dynamic value model of cows based on the production accounting process,the dynamic amount and value of domestic cows are predicted,reflecting changes in the cost behavior.The dynamic cow value prediction model integrating cost accounting system can not only reflect operating costs and other data,but also directly output the out-of-pocket cost,non cash cost,and total cost of cows in each stage.The cow value dynamic calculation meets with the prediction needs of enterprise value evaluation for free cash flow of enterprises,facilitating reasonable control of amount of livestock on hand,calving,and slaughter quantities of livestock assets in the future.In addition,it can be effectively combined with daily business management and provide reference for enterprises to achieve financial budget control.

关 键 词：产畜类资产 生产核算流程 动态存栏数量 动态存栏价值 

分 类 号：F273.4[经济管理—企业管理]