考虑人群活动的城市场所洪涝灾害风险动态评估——以深圳市为例  

Dynamic assessment of flood disaster risk in urban places considering crowd activities:A case study in Shenzhen,China

作　　者：黄晶[1,2] 王子勍 戴强 王慧敏[1,2] Huang Jing;Wang Ziqing;Dai Qiang;Wang Huimin(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第4期711-720,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171081,42371092,91846203,72174054)资助。

摘　　要：为了揭示人群动态活动对城市洪涝灾害风险的影响,本文引入场所视角,建立了考虑人群活动的城市场所洪涝灾害风险评估模型,以深圳市福田区4个典型社区为例分析了工作日和休息日的白天、晚上4个时段下不同类型场所的洪涝灾害风险变化。结果表明:①除危险性以外,频繁的人群活动亦会增加场所的洪涝灾害风险,与人群活动相关的指标权重达0.31;②不同类型场所的洪涝灾害风险差异显著,且随着人群活动动态变化,生活场所平均风险最高,在4个时段波动较小;居住型混合场所洪涝平均风险次之,但晚上时段比白天高25%左右;商业场所、公共服务场所和办公型混合场所平均风险也较高,在工作日白天高于其他时段;绿色休闲场所在4个时段风险都最低;③居住型社区和综合型社区的洪涝风险存在显著差异,居住型社区为持续性高风险社区,其高风险场所占比在4个时段均超过40%,尤其在晚上达60%,而综合型社区风险呈现出工作日白天高于其他时段的特征,其高风险场所比例最高达54%。In order to reveal the influence of dynamic crowd activities on urban flood risk,a flood risk assessment model for urban places,considering crowd activities,is established to analyze the changes of flood risk in different types of places under 4 time periods:day and night on weekdays and day and night on rest days.4 typical communities in Futian District of Shenzhen are selected as examples.The results show that:1)In addition to the hazard factor,frequent crowd activities also contribute to increased flood risk.The total weight of 3 indicators related to crowd activities is 0.31.2)The flood risk varies significantly across different place types and exhibits dynamic changes with crowd activities.The average risk of living places is higher than all other places,with minmal fluctuation in 4 periods;the average risk of flooding in residential mixed places ranks second highest,and the risk in the evening hours is about 25%higher than that in the daytime;the average risks in commercial places,public service places,and office-related mixed places are also higher,especially during the daytime on weekdays;the risk in green leisure places is the lowest across all four periods.3)There are significant differences in flood risk between living community and comprehensive community,living community is the sustained high-risk community,with the proportion of high-risk places over 40%in all 4 periods,particularly over 60%at night.Comprehensive community presents the characteristic that flood risk is higher during the daytime on weekdays compared to other periods,when the proportion of high-risk places is up to 54%.

关 键 词：城市洪涝灾害 风险评估 场所 人群活动 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]