高比例新能源电力系统可靠性高效评估和薄弱环节辨识方法  

An efficient reliability evaluation and weak link identification method for high⁃proportion new energy power system

作　　者：杨高峰 胡文 方钦 汤林 邵常政 何豪杰 YANG Gaofeng;HU Wen;FANG Qin;TANG Lin;SHAO Changzheng;HE Haojie(State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 400000,China;State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology(Chongqing University),Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]国网重庆市电力公司,重庆400000 [2]输变电装备技术全国重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆400044

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2024年第4期43-52,共10页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

基　　金：国网重庆营销服务中心2022年重庆新型电力系统可靠性管理的精益化数字化转型服务项目(SGCQKH00YYJS2200029)。

摘　　要：新能源渗透率的提高可能诱发供电中断的风险,使电力系统的运行可靠性降低,传统的中长期可靠性评估方法难以满足运行可靠性评估的时间需求。本文提出了一种电力系统运行可靠性高效评估算法,揭示了电力系统运行可靠性指标与风电出力不确定性因素的解析函数关系,避免不确定性因素变化时可靠性的重复计算。首先,基于隐马尔可夫模型对风电出力的分布特性进行建模;然后,通过状态枚举-混沌多项式展开方法建立可靠性指标与风电出力间的解析函数;最后,基于解析函数实现对实时风电出力下的新能源电力系统运行可靠性的高效评估及薄弱环节辨识。以修改的IEEE-RTS79系统为例进行分析计算,验证了所提方法的有效性。The increase in renewable energy penetration rate may induce the risk of power supply interruption and reduce the operation reliability of the power system.The traditional mid⁃long⁃term reliability evaluation method is challenging to meet the time requirement of operation reliability evaluation.This paper proposes an efficient evalua⁃tion algorithm for power system operation reliability,which reveals the analytical function relationship between the power system operation reliability index and uncertain factors such as wind power output.It avoids repeated reliabil⁃ity calculation when uncertain factors change.Firstly,the distribution characteristics of wind power output are mod⁃eled based on the hidden Markov model.Then,the analytical function between the reliability index and wind power output is established by the state enumeration⁃polynomial chaos expansion method.Finally,based on the analytical function,the efficient operational reliability evaluation and weak links identification of the new energy power system under real⁃time wind power output are realized.Taking the modified IEEE RTS79 system as an example,the effec⁃tiveness of the proposed method is verified.

关 键 词：新能源电力系统 隐马尔可夫模型 混沌多项式展开 可靠性评估 状态枚举 薄弱环节辨识 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]