不同目标函数对新安江模型参数的敏感性和不确定性影响分析  

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Impact Analysis of Different Objective Functions on the Parameters of Xin’anjiang Model

作　　者：李悦[1,2] 刘冀 杨少康 赵心睿[1,2] 舒章康[3] LI Yue;LIU Ji;YANG Shaokang;ZHAO Xinrui;SHU Zhangkang(Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水文》2024年第2期1-7,18,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：湖北省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(D20211205);国家自然科学基金项目(51609124)。

摘　　要：目标函数的选择影响流域水文模型的参数率定结果。为深入探究不同目标函数对水文模型参数的敏感性和不确定性及径流模拟结果的影响,本文以福建省金溪池潭流域日径流模拟为例,采用SCEM-UA优化算法率定三水源新安江模型,选择纳什效率系数f_(1)、均方根误差f_(2)和Kling-Gupta效率系数f_(3)作为参数率定的目标函数,同时构建分别偏好f_(1)、f_(2)、f_(3)三者的组合多目标函数F_(1)、F_(2)和F_(3)共6个率定目标,比较不同率定目标下的径流模拟精度差异,采用Sobol全局敏感性分析方法定量对比分析不同目标函数下的新安江模型参数敏感性,最后基于GLUE方法分析丰枯水期和不同流量级别下的径流模拟不确定性。结果表明:(1)6个目标函数下,新安江模型的主要敏感参数识别结果一致;(2)F_(1),F_(2),F_(3)较单目标函数展现出更高的径流模拟精度;(3)在不同水文时期和不同流量级别下,f_(1)表现出较其他目标函数更高的覆盖率和较小的不确定性区间。不同目标函数下均呈现枯水期参数不确定性最小,且随流量级别的增大而径流模拟不确定性增加的规律。The choice of objective function affects the parameterization results of watershed hydrological models.In order to deeply investigate the effects of different objective functions on the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological model parameters and the uncertainty of runoff simulation results,this paper takes the daily runoff simulation of Jinxi Chitan watershed in Fujian Province as an example,and uses the SCEM-UA optimization algorithm to rate the three-source Xin'anjiang model,and selects Nash efficiency coefficient(f_(1)),root mean square error(f_(2))and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient(f_(3))are selected as the objective functions of parameter rate,and a combined multi-objective function F_(1),F_(2)and F_(3)with preferences for f_(1),f_(2)and f_(3)are also constructed for a total of six rate objectives to compare the differences in runoff simulation accuracy with different rate objectives.And the Sobol global sensitivity analysis method was used to quantitatively compare and analyze the sensitivity of the Xin’anjiang model parameters with different objective functions.Finally,this study analyzed the differences in runoff simulation uncertainties with different flow levels and abundant and dry periods based on the GLUE method.The results show that:(1)under six objective functions,the main sensitive parameters of Xin’an River model are identified with the same results;(2)F_(1),F_(2),and F_(3)show higher runoff simulation accuracy than the single objective function;(3)Under different hydrological periods and different flow levels,f_(1)shows higher coverage and smaller uncertainty intervals than other objective functions.The uncertainty of the parameters in the dry period is minimized under different objective functions,and the uncertainty of the runoff simulation increases with the increase of flow level.

关 键 词：径流模拟 Sobol敏感性分析 新安江模型 GLUE 参数率定目标 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]