基于改进DBN的大断面矩形顶管穿越铁路风险评估  

Risk assessment of large-section rectangular pipe jacking project crossing railway based on improved DBN

作　　者：麻建飞 凌小康 杜文选 贺少辉[1] 崔光耀 MA Jianfei;LING Xiaokang;DU Wenxuan;HE Shaohui;CUI Guangyao(School of Civil Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying&Designing Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510610,China;School of Civil Engineering,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044 [2]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东广州510610 [3]北方工业大学土木工程学院,北京100144

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第4期20-26,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52178378)。

摘　　要：为了评估大断面矩形顶管隧道下穿铁路风险,采用解释结构模型法建立大断面矩形顶管下穿铁路风险评估体系,构建改进动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)风险预测模型,采用模糊集理论、专家评估法等得到大断面矩形顶管穿越铁路风险值。研究结果表明:改进的DBN模型可实现大断面矩形顶管穿越铁路工程的工前风险评估、风险控制预案提前布置、现场施工风险动态评估和反馈;改进DBN模型的风险预测与专家预测结果一致;有限元-动态贝叶斯网络(FEM-DBN)模型的预测风险值较现场监测-动态贝叶斯网络(OSM-DBN)模型稍大,可为穿越工程提供更多安全储备。研究结果可为大断面顶管穿越铁路施工风险控制提供参考。To assess the risk of large-section rectangular pipe jacking tunnel under-crossing railway,a risk assessment system for the large-section rectangular pipe jacking project under-crossing railway was established by using the interpretive structural modeling approach.An improved dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)risk prediction model was developed,and the risk values of large-section rectangular pipe jacking project under-crossing railway were obtained by the fuzzy set theory and expert assessment method.The results show that the improved DBN model can achieve the advanced risk assessment,early deployment of risk control plans,dynamic assessment,and feedback of on-site construction risk for the large-section rectangular pipe jacking project under-crossing railway.The risk prediction results of the improved DBN model are consistent with the expert prediction results.The predicted risk values of finite element-DBN(FEM-DBN)model are slightly higher than those of on site monitoring-DBN(OSM-DBN)model,which can provide more safety reserves for crossing projects.The research results can provide reference for risk control in the construction of large-section pipe jacking crossing railways.

关 键 词：隧道工程 风险评估 穿越工程 数值模拟 现场监测 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]