Multi-Agent模式下的城市暴雨内涝应急决策方法研究  

Research on emergency decision-making method of urban rainstorm waterlogging under Multi-Agent mode

作　　者：王莉 杨若昕 曹景稳 景紫嫣 李佳欢 WANG Li;YANG Ruoxin;CAO Jingwen;JING Ziyan;LI Jiahuan(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710054,China;PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company,Xi’an Shaanxi 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]中国石油长庆油田公司,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第4期199-206,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52074214);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(51504185)。

摘　　要：为厘清应对暴雨内涝灾害动态决策过程中决策主体、决策、决策方案等决策要素间的不确定关系,提出1种多主体(Multi-Agent)和贝叶斯决策网络(BDN)相结合的应急决策方法。首先分阶段构建“主体-任务”可视化网络,分析暴雨内涝灾害各应急阶段的主要任务和参与的决策主体;在考虑到决策要素间的动态不确定性可能造成决策风险的前提下,运用Multi-Agent和BDN方法探究各决策要素间的影响关系,以便进行方案集优选。研究结果表明:该方法具有实用性和现实意义,研究结果可为城市暴雨内涝灾害的应急决策提供理论参考。In order to clarify the uncertain relationship among decision-making elements such as decision-making subject,decision-making and decision-making scheme in the dynamic decision-making process of coping with rainstorm waterlogging disaster,an emergency decision-making method combining Multi-Agent and Bayesian decision network(BDN)was proposed.Firstly,a“subject-task”visualization network was constructed in stages,and the main tasks and decision-making subjects involved in each emergency stage of rainstorm waterlogging disaster were analyzed.Under the premise that the dynamic uncertainty among decision-making elements may cause decision-making risk,the Multi-Agent and BDN methods were used to explore the influence relationship of each decision-making element,so as to carry out the scheme set optimization.The results show that the method has practicality and practical significance.The research results can provide theoretical reference for emergency decision-making of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters.

关 键 词：城市暴雨内涝 贝叶斯决策网络 多主体应急决策 不确定关系 “主体-任务”互动网络 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X923