基于突变理论的乌江干流思南段岩溶地下水开发利用风险评价  

RISK ASSESSMENT OF KARST GROUNDWATER DEVELOPMENT AND UTILIZATION IN THE SINAN SECTION OF WUJIANG RIVER BASED ON CATASTROPHE THEORY

作　　者：胡荣 王先庆 杨正飞 黄欣欣 HU Rong;WANG Xian-qing;YANG Zheng-fei;HUANG Xin-xin(Guizhou Institute of Geological Survey,Guiyang 550081,China;No.114 Geological Brigade of Guizhou Geological and Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou Province,China;Guizhou Xingqian Human Resources Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省地质调查院,贵州贵阳550081 [2]贵州省地质矿产勘查开发局114地质大队,贵州遵义563000 [3]贵州兴黔人才资源有限责任公司,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《地质与资源》2024年第2期237-245,共9页Geology and Resources

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目“贵州重点岩溶流域地下水勘查与开发示范”(1212011089026).

摘　　要：水资源的储备和利用程度极大地影响着人类社会的发展.乌江干流思南段岩溶地下水资源丰富,但地下水埋藏较深,利用率较低.突发的极端干旱天气及长期的“三废”排放量增加,使得区域内可利用的岩溶地下水资源面临严峻挑战.本研究围绕地下水开发利用风险问题,基于突变理论,建立地下水开发利用风险评价指标体系,综合考虑区域自然背景条件、地下水开发现状和社会经济发展3个方面因素,将研究区划分为8个水资源子评价区,并设置了包括目标层、准则层(7项指标)和指标层(13项指标)三级指标评价体系,运用综合风险值5级评价方法进行地下水开发利用风险评价.评价结果表明,研究区地下水资源开发利用的综合风险值为0.8345~0.9271,处于中险—重险范围,地下水开发风险较大,各评价区域风险排序为:Ⅳ<Ⅰ1<Ⅶ<Ⅱ<Ⅵ<Ⅰ2<Ⅴ<Ⅲ.评价结果可为区域地下水可持续开发利用提供理论依据.The reserve and utilization of water resources greatly affect the social development.Despite the abundant karst groundwater resources in the Sinan section of Wujiang River,the utilization rate is low for its deep burial.Due to sudden extreme dry weather and increasing industrial pollution,the karst groundwater resources available in the region face severe challenges.Focusing on the problem of groundwater development and utilization risk,the study establishes the groundwater development and utilization risk evaluation index system on the basis of catastrophe theory.According to the regional natural background conditions,groundwater development status and socioeconomic development,the study area is divided into 8 water resources evaluation sub-zones,and a three-level index evaluation system including target layer,criterion layer(7 indicators)and index layer(13 indicators)is set up,with a five-grade comprehensive evaluation method to assess the risk of groundwater development and utilization.The results show that the comprehensive risk values of groundwater resources development and utilization range from 0.8345 to 0.9271,in medium-severe risk.The risk ranking of each sub-zone is as follows:IV<I1<VII<II<VI<I2<V<III.The evaluation results can provide theoretical basis for sustainable development and utilization of regional groundwater.

关 键 词：岩溶地下水 突变理论 指标评价体系 地下水开发利用 贵州省 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]