天津市2010—2016年恶性肿瘤生存分析  

Cancer survival analysis in Tianjin,2010 to 2016

作　　者：王冲[1] 沈成凤[1] 寻鲁宁 张爽[2] 张辉[2] 郑文龙[2] 王德征[1] Wang Chong;Shen Chengfeng;Xun Luning;Zhang Shuang;Zhang Hui;Zheng Wenlong;Wang Dezheng(Department of Cancer Registration,Institution of Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control,Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China;Department of Vital Statistics,Institution of Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control,Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心非传染性疾病预防控制所肿瘤登记科,天津300011 [2]天津市疾病预防控制中心非传染性疾病预防控制所生命统计科,天津300011

出　　处：《中华肿瘤杂志》2024年第4期319-325,共7页Chinese Journal of Oncology

基　　金：天津市卫生高层次人才选拔培养项目(津人才[2018]19号);天津市医学重点学科(专科)建设项目流行病学-非传染病预防与控制(TJYXZDXK-051A)。

摘　　要：目的对天津市2010—2016年新发恶性肿瘤进行生存分析,为评估区域肿瘤防治状况、制定健康政策提供依据。方法收集2010年1月1日至2016年12月31日天津市户籍居民肿瘤登记数据,随访截至2021年12月31日。使用寿命表法估计观察生存率(OSR),EderedⅡ法估计相对生存率(RSR),并对不同年份、性别、年龄、地区和肿瘤分类进行亚组分析。采用Kaplan-Meier法和Log rank检验比较生存曲线组间差异,Joinpoint回归模型分析趋势变化。结果天津市恶性肿瘤5年RSR从2010年的41.92%提高至2016年的53.65%,呈上升趋势(t=4.81,P=0.005)。2010—2016年总体5年RSR为48.56%,女性(57.71%)高于男性(39.20%),城区(49.38%)高于郊区(47.24%),0~14岁、15~44岁、45~64岁和≥65岁年龄组5年RSR分别为63.14%、78.39%、58.25%和32.67%。恶性肿瘤相对中位生存时间从2010年的2.34年提高至2016年的6.00年,呈上升趋势(t=3.86,P=0.012)。2010—2016年总体中位相对生存时间为4.11年,女性(11.99年)高于男性(2.03年),城区(4.60年)高于郊区(3.43年),15~44岁、45~64岁和≥65岁年龄组相对中位生存时间分别为12.07、11.92和1.34年。结论天津市2010—2016年恶性肿瘤5年生存率持续升高,总体肿瘤防治效果明显,应重点关注男性、郊区和高年龄组人群,进一步加强肺癌、食管癌、肝癌、胆囊癌和胰腺癌防治。Objective Survival analysis of cancers'incidence data in Tianjin from 2010 to 2016 was conducted to provide the basis for formulating and evaluating regional health policies on cancer prevention and treatment.Methods Registration data in Tianjin were used between January 1,2010 to December 31,2016 and patients were followed-up till 31 December,2021.Life-table method was used to calculate the observed survival rate and EderedⅡwas used to calculate the relative survival rate.The data were stratified by year,gender,age group and cancer sites.Difference in survival curves between group was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank test.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend change.Results The 5-year relative survival rates of cancer were 41.92%to 53.65%from 2010 to 2016 for residents in Tianjin,with an increasing trend(t=4.81,P=0.005),and the average was 48.56%.The survival rate of females was higher than that of males(57.71%vs.39.20%),and the survival rate of urban residents was higher than that of rural residents(49.38%vs.47.24%).The 5-year relative survival rates were 63.14%,78.39%,58.25%and 32.67%in 0-14,15-44,45-64 and 65 and above age groups,respectively.The median relative survival times of all cancer were 2.34 to 6.00 years from 2010 to 2016 in Tianjin,with an increasing trend(t=3.86,P=0.012).The average of median relative survival times was 4.11 years.The median survival time of females was longer than that of males(11.99 years vs.2.03 years),and the time of urban residents were longer than that of rural residents(4.60 years vs.3.43 years).The median relative survival time were 12.07,11.92 and 1.34 years in 15-44,45-64 and 65 and above age groups,respectively.Conclusions The cumulative survival rate of cancer increased significantly from 2010 to 2016 in Tianjin,indicating that the prevention and treatment effect of cancer is obvious.The focus should be on male,rural areas,higher age group,and targeted prevention and treatment measures should be taken to lung,esophagus,liver,gallbladder

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 生存分析 观察生存率 相对生存率 天津 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]