SARIMA模型在江阴市食源性疾病报告发病趋势预测中的应用  

Application of SARIMA model in predicting the reported incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City

作　　者：张力 尤诚成 高英[1] 徐超[1] 缪国忠 ZHANG Li;YOU Chengcheng;GAO Ying;XU Chao;MIAO Guozhong(Jiangyin City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangyin 214400,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江阴市疾病预防控制中心,江苏江阴214400 [2]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2024年第4期379-384,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：无锡市卫生健康委青年项目(项目编号:Q202254)。

摘　　要：目的 基于江阴市食源性疾病监测数据,探讨SARIMA模型在江阴市食源性疾病发病趋势中的应用。方法 采用江阴市2018年1月至2022年6月的食源性疾病病例报告数据,建立SARIMA预测模型,用2022年7至12月报告数据验证所建立模型,预测2023年1至6月江阴市食源性疾病报告发病率。检验水准α=0.05。结果 SARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,1)12模型可以较好拟合江阴市2018年1月至2022年6月的食源性疾病月报告发病数据,并且能够较为准确地预测未来短期报告发病数据,MAPE=17.17%。结论 SARIMA模型能够适用于江阴市食源性疾病报告发病趋势的短期预测,可作为食源性疾病预测预警的参考模型,为食源性疾病防控提供理论依据。Objective To apply SARIMA model to predict the incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin based on the monitoring data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City.Methods The SARIMA prediction model was established by using the reported data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin from January 2018 to June 2022.The established model was verified by the reported data from July 2022 to December 2022,and the reported incidence of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin from January to June 2023 was predicted.The test level wasα=0.05.Results SARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,1)12model could well fit the monthly reported incidence data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City from January 2018 to June 2022,and could accurately predict the short-term reported incidence in the future,with MAPE as 17.17%.Conclusions SARIMA model can be used for shortterm prediction of the reported incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City,and can be used as a reference model for prediction and early warning of foodborne diseases,providing theoretical basis for the prevention and control of foodborne diseases.

关 键 词：食源性疾病 预测 SARIMA模型 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]