2021年广元市空气污染对人群健康影响的时间序列分析  

A time series analysis of the impact of air pollution on population health in Guangyuan City in 2021

作　　者：薛蓉[1] 昝雨吟 刘子冲 徐虹[2] 边恩元 XUE Rong;ZAN Yuyin;LIU Zichong;XU Hong;BIAN Enyuan(Guangyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangyuan 628000,Sichuan Province,China;Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310021,Zhejiang Province,China;The First People's Hospital of Guangyuan,Guangyuan 628000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]广元市疾病预防控制中心,四川广元628000 [2]杭州市疾病预防控制中心,杭州310021 [3]广元市第一人民医院,四川广元628000

出　　处：《职业卫生与病伤》2024年第2期117-129,共13页Occupational Health and Damage

基　　金：广元市科学技术局指导性科技计划项目(项目编号:20ZDYF0065)。

摘　　要：目的了解2021年广元市空气污染现状,探讨空气污染物对人群非意外死亡和医院门诊就诊量的影响。方法分别从广元市气象局、生态环境局、疾病预防控制中心和哨点医院收集2021年气象监测资料、环境空气质量资料、死因监测资料和医院就诊资料等,采用Spearman相关分析空气污染物与气象因素的相关性,采用时间序列的广义相加模型,用R 3.4.3软件分析空气污染物与人群死亡、医院就诊的关联性,检验水准为α=0.05。结果SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO、O_(3)与医院门诊就诊量呈正相关;PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)浓度(Lag03)每升高10μg/m^(3),人群非意外死亡数分别增加2.74%(95%CI:0.88%~4.63%)、1.90%(95%CI:0.73%~3.09%)、32.26%(95%CI:13.77%~53.76%)、8.41%(95%CI:4.42%~12.55%),CO浓度(Lag03)每升高0.01 mg/m^(3)人群非意外死亡数增加0.39%(95%CI:0.19%~0.60%),且对≥65岁人群非意外死亡产生滞后效应更明显。结论空气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO会增加人群非意外死亡数,NO_(2)、O3会增加医院门诊量,并有滞后效应。Objective To understand the current situation of air pollution in Guangyuan City in 2021,and to explore the impact of air pollutants on non-accidental mortality and outpatient visits in hospitals.Methods Meteorological monitoring data,ambient air quality data,death cause monitoring data and hospital treatment data in 2021 were collected from Guangyuan Meteorological Bureau,Ecological Environment Bureau,Center for Disease Prevention and Control and sentinel hospitals.Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between air pollutants and meteorological factors.Statistical analysis of the correlation between air pollutants and population mortality and hospital visits was conducted by R 3.4.3 software under the generalized additive model of time series.The test level wasα=0.05.Results SO_(2),NO_(2),CO and O_3were positively correlated with outpatient visits in hospitals.For every 10μg/m^(3)increase of PM_(2.5),PM10,SO_(2)and NO_(2)concentrations(Lag03),the numbers of non-accidental deaths in the population increased by 2.74%(95%CI:0.88%-4.63%),1.90%(95%CI:0.73%-3.09%),32.26%(95%CI:13.77%-53.76%)and 8.41%(95%CI:4.42%-12.55%),respectively.The number of non-accidental deaths increased by 0.39%(95%CI:0.19%-0.60%)for every 0.01 mg/m^(3)increase in CO concentration(Lag03).There was a more significant lag effect on non-accidental deaths among people aged≥65years old.Conclusions Air pollutants PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2)and CO could increase the number of non-accidental deaths in the population.NO_(2)and O_3could increase the number of outpatient visits in hospitals,with a lag effect.

关 键 词：空气污染 时间序列分析 非意外死亡 医院门诊量 

分 类 号：R12[医药卫生—环境卫生学] X51[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]