2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物PM_(2.5)对人群死因影响的时间序列分析  

Time series analysis of the influence of air pollutant PM_(2.5)on the cause of death in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021

作　　者：陈荟栩 孔莉[2] 李世香[2] 肖虹[2] 赵继民[2] 包名家[2] CHEN Huixu;KONG Li;LI Shixiang;XIAO Hong;ZHAO Jimin;BAO Mingjia(School of Public Health,Jiamusi University,Jiamusi Heilongjiang,154000,China;Department of Ofice,Jiamusi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiamusi Heilongjiang,154000,China)

机构地区：[1]佳木斯大学公共卫生学院,黑龙江佳木斯154000 [2]佳木斯市疾病预防控制中心办公室,黑龙江佳木斯154000

出　　处：《职业与健康》2024年第4期504-508,共5页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物细颗粒物(fine particulate matters,PM_(2.5))对不同死因的影响。方法利用2015—2021年死因监测数据、气象数据和大气污染物监测数据,采用泊松广义相加模型,控制气象因素、时间趋势和其他污染物等混杂因素影响,分析PM_(2.5)暴露对人群死亡风险的影响。结果2015—2021年佳木斯市总死亡人数为108800人,PM_(2.5)年均浓度为29.910μg/m^(3)。PM_(2.5)浓度变化与各疾病死亡均为正相关关系(均P<0.05)。PM_(2.5)浓度变化对疾病死亡风险影响存在滞后性且累积滞后5日对总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡影响效应最大,超额危险度(excess risk,ER)值分别为0.053%(95%CI:0.021~0.086)和0.078%(95%CI:0.035~0.120),滞后2日浓度对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响效应最大,ER值为0.079%(95%CI:0.004~0.154)。男性和≥65的老年人群更为敏感,ER值分别为0.061%(95%CI:0.024~0.099)和0.054%(95%CI:0.024~0.085)。PM_(2.5)浓度升高1μg/m^(3),总死亡风险、循环系统疾病死亡风险、呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.050%(95%CI:0.020~0.090)、0.080%(95%CI:0.040~0.120)、0.080%(95%CI:0.010~0.150)。结论2015—2021年佳木斯市大气中PM_(2.5)暴露与佳木斯市人群死亡风险增加密切相关,尤其是对男性和老年人群危害更加显著。Objective To analyze the influence of PM_(2.5)on different causes of death in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021.Methods The cause of death monitoring data,meteorological data and air pollutant monitoring data from 2015 to 2021 were collected,the Poisson generalized addition model was used to control the influence of confounding factors such as meteorological factors,time trend and other pollutants,and to analyze the influence of PM_(2.5)exposure on population mortality risk.Results From 2015 to2021,the total number of deaths in Jiamusi City was 108800,and the average annual concentration of PM_(2.5)was 29.910μg/m^(3).There was a positive correlation between PM_(2.5)concentration and death of all diseases(all P<0.05).The change of PM_(2.5)concentration had a lag effect on the risk of death from diseases,and the cumulative lag of 5 days had the greatest effect on total death and death from circulatory diseases,with ER values of 0.053%(95%CI:0.021-0.086)and 0.078%(95%CI:0.035-0.120),respectively.The 2-day lag concentration had the greatest effect on death from respiratory diseases,with ER value of 0.079%(95%CI:0.004-0.154).Men and older adults≥65 were more sensitive,with ER values of 0.061%(95%CI:0.024-0.099)and 0.054%(95%CI:0.024-0.085),respectively.The pollutant model showed that when PM_(2.5)concentration increased by 1μg/m^(3),the risk of total death,the risk of death from circulatory diseases,and the risk of death from respiratory diseases increased by 0.050%(95%CI:0.020-0.090),0.080%(95%CI:0.040-0.120)and 0.080%(95%CI:0.010-0.015).Conclusion The exposure of PM_(2.5)in the atmosphere in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021 is closely related to the increased risk of death of the population in Jiamusi City,especially for men and the elderly population.

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 死因监测 广义相加模型 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R181.34[医药卫生—流行病学]