碳税征收对我国宏观经济和石化产业影响  

The Impact of Carbon Tax on Macroeconomy and Petrochemical Industry of China

作　　者：高蕙雯 胡明禹 Gao Huiwen;Hu Mingyu(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《石油石化绿色低碳》2024年第2期25-33,共9页Green Petroleum & Petrochemicals

基　　金：中国石化科技部项目(R23**7)。

摘　　要：碳税是国际上碳定价机制的重要形式之一。在我国,适时开征碳税,对于指引产业发挥税收政策对绿色低碳发展作用、有效弥补碳交易定价缺陷、实现“双碳”目标意义重大。该文基于最新的投入产出表,构建中国碳税可计算一般均衡模型,采用动态碳税调整机制,模拟分析碳税征收对宏观经济和产业经济的影响。研究发现,征收碳税将对我国GDP、出口、居民收入等经济指标造成负面影响,但会抑制高耗能行业发展,从而优化产业结构;对于石化产业,实施碳税会降低医药制品价格,提升其市场竞争力,但会导致基础化学原料等高碳排行业产出和出口的双重下降;引导消费者选择低碳环保产品,从而降低传统橡塑制品产出;综合来看,实施碳税会显著降低高耗能石化行业化石能源消耗和碳排总量,降幅超过全社会平均水平,有利于推动石化行业低碳发展。Carbon tax,as a price-based emission reduction tool,is one of the important forms of carbon pricing mechanism,which has been implemented in more than 30 countries(regions)in the world.As a major carbon emitter,China should levy carbon tax timely,which is of great significance for playing the guiding role of tax policy on green and low-carbon development,making up for the defects of carbon trading pricing effectively,and achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Based on the latest input-output table,this paper constructs a computable general equilibrium model of carbon tax in China,adopts a dynamic carbon tax adjustment mechanism,and simulates the impact of carbon tax on macroeconomy and industrial economy.The paper finds that:levying carbon tax will have a negative impact on China's GDP and other economic indicators,but it will also curb the development of high-energy-consuming industries,thus optimizing the industrial structure;implementing carbon tax will enhance the market competitiveness of low-carbon emission industries such as pharmaceutical products,while for high-carbon emission industries such as basic chemical raw materials,levying carbon tax will lead to a double decline in their output and export;the implementation of carbon tax policy will significantly reduce the energy consumption and carbon emission of high-energy-consuming petrochemical industry,which is conducive to promoting the low-carbon development of petrochemical industry.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 碳税政策 CGE 模型 经济影响 减排效果 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济] F812.42[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196