大都市区可持续发展的模式分异与情景模拟——以北京为例  

Regional Divergence and Scenario Simulation of Sustainable Development Patterns in Beijing,China

作　　者：邓羽[1] 王文学 王海军[3,4] DENG Yu;WANG Wenxue;WANG Haijun(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems,Ministry of Education,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [4]武汉大学地理信息系统教育部重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2024年第5期844-855,共12页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3800803);国家自然科学基金(42271218)。

摘　　要：科学判断大都市区可持续发展模式并系统预测其可持续水平变化规律是因地制宜制定发展政策的基础。基于多维度综合指标体系的可持续性评价研究,在彰显大都市区发展差异性、系统性和动态性上存在不足。通过耦合系统动力学模型和共享社会经济路径,模拟中国北京市16个市辖区2011—2030年可持续发展水平变化趋势,据此凝练大都市区可持续发展模式并对比不同模式下各发展情景优势与不足。结果表明,北京各区在经济、社会与环境方面表现各异,存在协同发展、生态偏向和低位成长3种发展模式;在共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathway,SSP)1、SSP2(BAU(business-as-usual))、SSP3和SSP5共4种情景中,SSP1是最理想的城市可持续发展情景;为实现由历史轨迹向SSP1情景的转变,各类型区应采取差异化发展策略。协同发展型区域应以社会保障与就业支出为抓手,补齐社会发展短板,提升协调发展质量;生态偏向型区域应降低能源消耗,并增加环保投入,强化生态优势,以积蓄绿色发展势能;低位成长型区域短期内可以维持高国内生产总值增长率,培育综合经济实力,以迈出发展困境,但要兼顾环境下行风险。研究结果反映了城市经济、社会与环境系统之间的复杂反馈关系,提供了一套面向大都市区可持续发展的系统评价与仿真模拟技术框架,将为城市精细化管理提供调控指引与决策依据。Objectives:Forecasting trends in sustainable sustainability levels in metropolitan areas serves as the foundation for developing development policies that are tailored to local conditions.Sustainability evaluation studies based on a multidimensional comprehensive index system fall short of highlighting the variability,systemic,and dynamic nature of metropolitan area development.To better understand the role of multidimensional scenarios in guiding the sustainable development of metropolitan areas,a greater emphasis on suburban spatial units and spatial heterogeneity characteristics is required.Methods:We simulate the trends of sustainable development levels of 16 municipal districts in Beijing,China from 2011 to 2030 by combining the system dynamics model and the shared socioeconomic pathways,and thus condense the metropolitan area's sustainable development model and compare the advantages and shortcomings of each development scenario under different models.Results:The findings show that:(1)Beijing's municipal districts perform differently in economic,social,and environmental subsystems,and there are three types of typical districts:Synergistic development,ecologically biased development,and economic constraint.(2)Shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)1 is the most desirable urban sustainable development scenario among the four scenarios of SSP1,SSP2(BAU(business-as-usual)),SSP3,and SSP5.(3)In order to achieve the transition from the historical trajectory to the SSP1 scenario,each district type should pursue a distinct development strategy.To improve the quality of coordinated development,synergistic development type zones should use social security and employment expenditures to compensate for the shortcomings of social development.Ecologically biased zones should reduce energy consumption and increase environmental protection investment to maintain environmental advantages,and economic constraint type zones can maintain high gross domestic product growth rates in the short term to get out of the development dilemma.

关 键 词：可持续发展 发展模式 模拟情景 大都市区 空间结构 北京 

分 类 号：F301.23[经济管理—产业经济]