基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的全国异地就医发展趋势预测研究  

Predicting the future trends of national out-of-area medical services utilization with the gray GM(1,1)model

作　　者：牛俊 李杰 刘中华 王海燕 闵峻蕾 Niu Jun;Li Jie;Liu Zhonghua;Wang Haiyan;Min Junlei(Liaoning Provincial Healthcare Security Service Center,Shenyang 110003,Liaoning Province,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省医疗保障事务服务中心,沈阳110003 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国医疗管理科学》2024年第3期38-44,共7页Chinese Journal Of Medical Management Sciences

摘　　要：目的分析GM(1,1)模型在我国异地就医领域中应用的可行性,并预测我国异地就医未来发展变化趋势,以期为医疗保障的政策制定与规划决策提供借鉴和参考。方法基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,对2023年—2030年我国异地就医人次和医疗费用变化趋势进行定量预测分析。结果异地就医人次2023年—2030年预测结果分别是11605.476万、12306.701万、13029.631万、13774.936万、14543.310万、15335.467万、16152.142万、16994.094万人次,其模型平均相对误差为6.103%;而异地就医医疗费用2023年—2030年预测结果分别是5402.736亿、5769.652亿、6149.246亿、6541.956亿、6948.235亿、7368.554亿、7803.395亿、8253.262亿元,其模型平均相对误差为4.385%。结论运用GM(1,1)模型对我国异地就医未来发展变化趋势进行预测分析是可行的,且预测精度等级优秀,预测值与实际值走势一致,模型拟合度较高,符合历史发展趋势,具有较为科学的预测效果。同时,从异地就医的风险管理、基金监管和疾病预防3个方面提出相应的对策建议,以促进异地就医健康良性发展。Objective To assess the applicability of the gray GM(1,1)model for predicting the utilization of out-of-area medical services in China and employ the model to predict future development trends,so as to provide evidence for the development of relevant policies and plans.Methods Based on the gray system theory GM(1,1)model,a quantitative predictive analysis of the trends in out-ofarea health care visits and medical expenses in China for the period of 2023–2030 was performed.Results The predicted numbers of out-of-area health care visits for each year from 2023 to 2030 were as follows:116.05476 million in 2023,123.06701 million in 2024,130.29631 million in 2025,137.74936 million in 2026,145.43310 million in 2027,153.35467 million in 2028,161.52142 million in 2029,and 169.94094 million in 2030,with the model's mean relative error being 6.103%.Meanwhile,the predicted out-of-area medical expenses from 2023 to 2030 were 540.2736,576.9652,614.9246,654.1956,694.8235,736.8554,780.3395,and 825.3262 billion yuan,respectively,with the mean relative error being 4.385%.Conclusion The GM(1,1)model is a feasible tool for predicting the future trends of out-of-area medical services utilization in China.The model exhibits high predictive accuracy,with the predicted values closely aligning with the actual data,indicating a strong fit and a scientifically robust predictive capability.Countermeasures on proper and feasible risk management,fund supervision,and disease prevention were proposed to promote rational development of out-of-area medical services utilization.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 异地就医人次 异地就医费用 预测分析 发展趋势 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F840.684[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]