基于插值修正ACER的脐带缆响应短期极值预测方法研究  

Short-term extreme response prediction method of an umbilical cable based on interpolation-corrected ACER

作　　者：阎军[1] 赵春雨 苏琦 柴威 卢青针 杨志勋 YAN Jun;ZHAO Chunyu;SU Qi;CHAI Wei;LU Qingzhen;YANG Zhixun(State Key Laboratory of Structural Analysis for Industrial Equipment,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;School of Naval Architecture,Ocean and Energy Power Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;School of Ocean Science and Technology,Dalian University of Technology,Panjin 124221,China;School of Mechatronics Engi-neering,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工业装备结构分析国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024 [2]武汉理工大学船海与能源动力工程学院,湖北武汉430063 [3]大连理工大学海洋科学与技术学院,辽宁盘锦124221 [4]哈尔滨工程大学机电工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2024年第5期930-937,共8页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：辽宁省兴辽英才计划(XLYC2002108);大连市支持高层次人才创新创业项目(2021RD16);国家自然科学基金项目(U1906233,52001088,52271269,52301315)。

摘　　要：针对脐带缆在随机载荷作用下其响应难以准确预测的问题,本文提出了一种基于插值技术与平均条件超越率(average conditional exceedance rate,ACER)的海洋脐带缆响应极值预测方法。构造随机波浪荷载作用下脐带缆结构响应的数值模型,获取脐带缆关键位置处的张力与曲率响应时程数据。分别求解张力和曲率时间序列对应的1~4阶ACER函数值,选取合适阶数的ACER函数,采用三次样条插值与B样条插值技术对平均条件超越点的尾部区域进行插值。对插值曲线外推,实现在不同超越概率下脐带缆的结构响应极值预测。本方法适用于非独立同分布下的海洋脐带缆张力与曲率响应数据的极值预测,并利用Gumbel极值分布模型进行对比,讨论并验证本文所提方法在海洋脐带缆响应极值预测中的适用性。Due to the difficulty in accurately predicting the response of umbilical cables under random load,we pro-pose a marine umbilical response extreme value prediction method based on interpolation technology and average conditional exceedance rate(ACER).First,a numerical model of the umbilical cable structural response under random wave loads is constructed to obtain the time-domain data of the tension and curvature responses at key posi-tions.Second,the 1-4 order ACER functions corresponding to the tension and curvature time series are solved sep-arately,and the ACER function with an appropriate order is selected.The cubic-and B-spline interpolation tech-niques are used to interpolate the tail region of the average conditional exceedance point.Finally,the interpolation curve is extrapolated to achieve the structural response extreme prediction of the umbilical cable under different ex-ceedance probabilities.This method can predict the extreme response of umbilical cable tension and curvature re-sponse under nonindependent and identically distributed conditions.The Gumbel extreme distribution model is used for comparison to discuss and verify the applicability of the proposed method in the extreme response prediction of the marine umbilical cable.

关 键 词：水下生产系统 脐带缆 随机载荷 极值预测 平均条件超越率 三次样条插值 B样条插值 Gumbel分布 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]