基于GRA-NSGM(1,4)模型的中国通用航空市场预测  

China General Aviation Market Forecast Based on GRA-NSGM(1,4)Model

作　　者：李章萍[1] 侯皓文 LI Zhangping;Hou Haowen(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第4期9-14,22,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：天津市教委项目:通用航空发展规律及监管模式研究(2020SK049)。

摘　　要：为了实现对我国通用航空市场精准预测,将灰色关联度分析(GRA)和改进结构多变量灰色预测模型(NSGM)结合,选取与通用航空飞行小时数密切相关的六个影响因素,利用GRA对各影响因素关联度进行排序,关联度排序结果为:GDP>通用航空器数量>通用航空企业数量>通航发展基金预算>通用机场数量>通用航空相关政策数量,选取排序前四的因素构建NSGM(1,4)模型,模型通过平均相对误差检验,预测精度为Ⅱ级。预测结果显示,2022—2025年我国通用航空生产作业飞行小时数将保持年均11.06%增幅快速发展,2025年将达到176.43万小时。最后对我国未来通用航空市场发展提出几点建议及思路。In order to achieve accurate prediction of China's general aviation market,this paper combines gray relation analysis(GRA)and new structure grey model(NSGM),selects six influencing factors closely related to the number of general aviation flight hours,and uses GRA to rank the correlation degree of each influencing factor,and the correlation ranking results are:GDP>number of general aircraft>number of general aviation enterprises>general aviation development fund budget>the number of general airports>The number of general aviation related policies,the top four factors in the ranking were selected to construct the NSGM(1,4)model,and the model passed the average relative error test,and the prediction accuracy was level II.The final forecast results show that from 2022 to 2025,the number of flight hours of China's general aviation production operations will maintain an average annual growth rate of 11.06%,and will reach 1.7643 million hours in 2025.Finally,several suggestions and ideas are put forward for the future development of China's general aviation market.

关 键 词：通用航空 灰色关联度分析 灰色预测 NSGM(1 N)模型 飞行小时 

分 类 号：F562.3[经济管理—产业经济]