山洪灾害雨量预警指标分析方法评述与展望  

Review and outlook on the analysis methods of rainfall warning indicators for flash flood early warning

作　　者：孙东亚[1,2] 翟晓燕[1,2] 郭一君 田壮显 SUN Dongya;ZHAI Xiaoyan;GUO Yijun;TIAN Zhuangxian(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第5期1-7,共7页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239006);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171047)。

摘　　要：山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,我国现阶段主要采用经验法和水位流量反推法确定雨量预警指标,并逐步推广应用复合预警指标法和动态临界雨量法。在系统阐述国内外常用雨量预警指标分析方法及其特点基础上,针对山洪灾害预警指标分析中需考虑的降雨时空分布变化、高含砂水流、泥石流及其他不确定因素影响问题,提出今后雨量预警指标研究方向。The early warning thresholds for flash flood disasters serve as the cornerstone of flash flood prediction and early warning systems.Currently,China predominantly relies on empirical methods and water stage-discharge backward extrapolation method to establish rainfall thresholds for early warnings.Additionally,there is a gradual shift towards adopting composite threshold and dynamic critical threshold approaches.In light of a comprehensive assessment of commonly used rainfall threshold analysis methods both in China and abroad,future research should prioritize modifying existing techniques.Specifically,attention should be directed towards accounting for the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall events,high-concentrated sediment flow,debris flow,and other uncertain factors.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 预警指标 水位流量反推法 动态临界雨量法 不确定因素 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]