基于测雨雷达与地面雨量站的山洪模拟及灾害预警时效分析  

Flash flood simulation and disaster warning leading time analysis based on data from rainfall radar and ground rain gauges

作　　者：孔坚 许泽星 舒毅 王协康[1] KONG Jian;XU Zexing;SHU Yi;WANG Xiekang(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065)

机构地区：[1]四川大学山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第5期27-31,44,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目资助(U2340201);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239006)。

摘　　要：传统暴雨山洪预警主要依靠地面雨量站降雨数据,易出现虚警漏警或难以满足预警时效的情况。流域面雨量实时监测和前移山洪预警响应时间是满足山洪灾害防御目标的重要技术手段,测雨雷达技术的应用也为山洪灾害防治提供了新的预警思路。以湖北柳林镇2021年8月12日暴雨山洪事件为例,采用模块化分布式水文模型(MDHM)模拟山洪过程并进行预警分析,对比基于测雨雷达、地面雨量站降雨输入条件下的灾害预警时效,评估两种降雨数据源下山洪预警的有效性和可靠性,结果表明测雨雷达预报降雨结合水位陡涨率预警法能显著提高预警效果,可为暴雨山洪防灾减灾提供技术支撑。The traditional early warning of rainstorm flash flood mainly relies on the rainfall data of the ground rain gauges,which is prone to false and missing alarms or difficult to meet the warning timeliness.Therefore,moving forward the flash flood warning response time and monitoring the area rainfall of the watershed are important technical means to meet the goal of flash flood defense,and the application of rainfall radar technology provides a new early warning idea for flash flood defense.In this paper,a rainstorm flash flood disaster in Liulin Town of Suizhou City of Hubei Province on August 12 of 2021 is taken as an example.The modular distributed hydrological model(MDHM)is used to simulate the flash flood process and carry out early warning analysis.The effectiveness and reliability of the flash flood early warning under the two rainfall data sources are evaluated by comparing the disaster warning timeliness under the rainfall input conditions based on the rainfall radar and the ground rain gauges.It is found that the rainfall forecast by the rainfall radar combined with the early warning of steep rise rate of water level can significantly improve the early warning effect and provide technical reference for flash flood management.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 测雨雷达 山洪模拟 雨量站 预警时效 湖北随州柳林镇 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P412.25[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]