城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评价  

Assessment of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters

作　　者：季孔阳 李学明[2] 高见[3] 徐佳颖 高玉琴[1] JI Kongyang;LI Xueming;GAO Jian;XU Jiaying;GAO Yuqin(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Sichuan Water Conservancy Vocational College,Chongzhou 611200,China;Jiangsu Province Rural Water Conservancy Science and Technology Development Center,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]四川水利职业技术学院,四川崇州611200 [3]江苏省农村水利科技发展中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2024年第3期13-20,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079039);江苏省水利科技项目(2020050);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000104)。

摘　　要：基于脆弱性概念阐述暴雨洪涝灾害下的城市脆弱性内涵,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个方面构建了包含11个指标的城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型,并确定脆弱性等级划分标准。以南京市秦淮区为例,针对100年一遇设计暴雨情景,基于MIKE一二维耦合模型,定量分析指标值,采用构建的评价模型计算了城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性指数,对极端暴雨情景下研究区的脆弱性进行了评价,绘制了研究区脆弱性空间分布图,分析了脆弱性分布特点与成因。结果表明:MIKE一二维耦合模型可用于暴露度指标中最大淹没水深和时段末淹没水深的获取;河流沿岸且地势较为平坦的区域,交通路网中的低洼区域、立交桥下易形成积水的区域,人口稠密、GDP产值高、暴露程度较高的居民住宅区与企业中心等区域脆弱性较高。The connotation of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is expounded based on the concept of vulnerability.A comprehensive evaluation index system and an evaluation model for urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters are constructed from three aspects:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability,including 11 indicators.The criteria for dividing vulnerability levels are determined.Taking Qinhuai District of Nanjing City as an example,for a 100-year return period design rainstorm scenario,quantitative analysis of the indicator values is conducted using the MIKE coupled one-and two-dimensional model.The index of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is evaluated using the constructed evaluation model.A spatial distribution map of vulnerability in the research area is drawn,and the characteristics and causes of vulnerability distribution are analyzed.The results show that the MIKE coupled one-and two-dimensional model can be used to obtain the maximum inundation depth and end-of-period inundation depth in the exposure index.Areas along rivers with relatively flat terrain,low-lying areas in the transportation network,areas prone to water accumulation under overpasses,densely populated areas,high GDP value areas,and areas with high exposure levels such as residential areas and business centers exhibit higher vulnerability.

关 键 词：极端暴雨 城市脆弱性 情景模拟 综合指数法 

分 类 号：TV1221[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]