悲观的危害:居民主观生存信念与中年消费困境  

The Harm of Pessimism:Residents'Subjective Survival Belief and Middle-aged Consumption Dilemma

作　　者：陈雪娇 王霄 孙嘉珺 Chen Xue-jiao;WANG Xiao;Sun Jia-jun

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第5期87-100,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于行为偏好的保险需求与投资消费随机最优控制问题研究”(项目编号:12371478);北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心重点项目“新发展阶段促进全体人民共同富裕研究”(项目编号:21LLLJB015)。

摘　　要：伴随经济社会、行为预期、人口特征的转变,主观生存信念已经成为影响居民消费决策的重要因素。本文基于2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查库与2018年中国人口与就业统计年鉴数据,应用寇尔法、伐尔法和指数法刻画、测度出我国中年居民存在主观生存信念悲观。本文基于模糊性将居民主观生存信念悲观这一现状引入消费决策模型,得到稳健最优策略的解析解。我们发现:主观生存信念悲观抑制居民消费,同时,客观死亡率、无风险利率和边际财富效用权重均对居民消费策略产生影响。本文为我国居民消费率不足的成因提出新的视角。With the change of economy,society,behavior expectation and population characteristics,subjective survival belief has become an important factor affecting residents'consumption decision.Based on the data of the 2018 China Health and Pension Tracking Survey Database and the 2018 China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook,this paper uses Kohl's method,Val's method and index method to characterize and measure the subjective survival belief pessimism of middle-aged Chinese residents.Based on fuzziness,this paper introduces the pessimistic subjective life belief into the consumption decision model and obtains the analytic solution of the robust optimal strategy.We found that pessimism of subjective survival belief inhibited residents'consumption,while objective mortality,risk-free interest rate and marginal wealth utility weight all affected residents'consumption strategy.This paper puts forward a new perspective for the cause of insufficient consumption rate of Chinese residents.

关 键 词：主观生存信念 居民消费 死亡率模糊 HJB方程 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济] F812