顾及土地利用强度和生态-经济权衡的四川省陆地生态系统碳储量预测与热点分析  

Carbon storage prediction of terrestrial ecosystems and hotspot analysis in Sichuan Province by considering land use intensity and eco⁃economic trade⁃offs

作　　者：高怡凡 宋长青 王元慧 叶思菁 高培超 GAO Yifan;SONG Changqing;WANG Yuanhui;YE Sijing;GAO Peichao(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Center for GeoData and Analysis,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京100875 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部地理数据与应用分析中心,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第9期3958-3969,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271418);中国科学院“美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程”A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA23100303);地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室自主课题(2022-ZD-04)。

摘　　要：中国致力于在2060年前实现碳中和,为缓解气候变化的全球性目标贡献力量。人类活动引起的土地变化是造成碳排放的主要原因之一。四川省森林资源丰富,具有较高的经济增长潜力和重要的生态地位,是中国实现碳中和的关键区域之一。为从土地管理的角度为中国的碳中和提供政策支持,本文在顾及土地利用强度和生态-经济权衡的情景下预测了四川省2030年的土地变化,提出了顾及土地利用强度的陆地生态系统未来碳储量估算方法,并估算了四川省2030年的碳储量。结果表明,四川省若能在未来平衡经济效益和生态效益,可在2030年同时实现经济生产总值(相对于2020)增加约34%和碳储量增加约3%。为实现上述目标,四川省未来具体需加强西北部高原温带湿润/半湿润地区和高原亚寒带半湿润地区的林地和湿地的保护与扩张,并促进以成都为核心的四川省东南部中亚热带湿润地区城市的均衡发展。China is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and contributing to the global goal of mitigating climate change.Achieving carbon neutrality requires reducing carbon emissions.One of the primary sources of carbon emissions from human activities is the change in land type.Sichuan Province is one of the core regions because it is rich in forest resources and has an essential economic and ecological status.For providing policy support from the land management perspective for carbon neutrality,this study predicts the land change and the carbon storage in Sichuan Province in 2030,considering the land use intensity and ecological⁃economic trade⁃offs.A method is proposed for estimating future carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems considering land use intensity.The results show that if Sichuan Province can balance economic and ecological benefits in the future,Sichuan Province can increase carbon storage by about 3%and increase GDP by about 34%in 2030(compared with 2020)simultaneously.To achieve this goal,Sichuan Province needs to strengthen the protection and expansion of forest land and wetlands in plateau temperate humid/semi⁃humid areas and plateau subarctic semi⁃humid areas and promote the balanced development of cities in central subtropical humid region Sichuan Province,with Chengdu as the core.

关 键 词：土地利用强度 土地变化模拟 碳储量 经济效益 生态效益 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]