对舆情精准研判的学理思考  

Theoretical Thinking on Precise Analysis of Public Sentiment

作　　者：丁柏铨 陈相雨[1] DING Bo-quan;CHEN Xiang-yu(School of Humanities,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;School of Journalism and Communication,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学人文学院,江苏南京210037 [2]南京大学新闻传播学院,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《编辑之友》2024年第5期56-64,86,共10页Editorial Friend

摘　　要：在当今时代,存在着各类舆情勃发的土壤和条件。以公众心声为核心内容的舆情,内含政治诉求、经济诉求、文化诉求和心理诉求等,以自己的方式聚集、形成、传播、运行、起落。舆情研判是特定主体在对舆情所作的研究分析的基础上所作的判断。舆情精准研判须以正确认知和深刻理解舆情为起点、为基础。舆情和舆论联系紧密但并不能等同。精准研判舆情有赖于走出对舆情的认知误区。舆情是研判对象,研究、分析呈现为持续的过程,判断是舆情研判形成的结果。进行精准舆情研判须符合基本程序,准确把握舆情精准研判的精髓,实现“研”与“判”的有机结合,就动态发展的舆情进行研判。舆情精准研判的着重点是:关注引发舆情的种种情形,进而关注影响舆情起伏的各种重要的作用力,按舆情运行规律进行舆情研判。舆情精准研判的关键点有:抓好对始发点、聚焦点、转折点、引爆点舆情的研判。In today's era,there are various soil and conditions for the flourishing of public sentiment.Public sentiment,with public opinion as its core content,contains political,economic,cultural,and psychological demands.It also gathers,forms,spreads,operates,and fluctuates in its own way.Public sentiment analysis is the judgment made by a specific subject based on the research and analysis of public sentiment.Accurate analysis of public sentiment requires a correct and a profound understanding of the situation acting as the starting point and foundation.Public sentiment and public opinion are closely related but cannot be equated.Accurately assessing public sentiment depends on overcoming cognitive misconceptions about public sentiment.Public sentiment is the object of analysis,and research and analysis are presented as a continuous process.Judgment is the result of public sentiment analysis.To conduct accurate public sentiment analysis and judgment,it is necessary to follow the basic procedures,accurately grasp the essence of accurate public sentiment analysis,achieve an organic combination of"research"and"judgment",and analyze the dynamic development of public sentiment.The focal point of an accurate public sentiment analysis is to focus on the various situations that trigger public sentiment,and then pay attention to the various important forces that affect the fluctuations of public sentiment,and conduct public sentiment analysis according to the operating rules of public sentiment.The key points in accurately analyzing public sentiment include:focusing on the analysis of the starting,focal,turning,and triggering points of public sentiment.

关 键 词：精准 舆情研判 学理思考 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]