颠覆性技术弱信号识别漏斗模型研究  

Research on Disruptive Technology Weak Signal Recognition Funnel Model

作　　者：陈伟[1,2,3] 王莉晓 Chen Wei;Wang Lixiao(National Science Library(WUHAN),Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430071;Department of Information Resources Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Hubei Key Laboratory of Big Data in Science and Technology,Wuhan 430071)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉文献情报中心,武汉430071 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系,北京100190 [3]科技大数据湖北省重点实验室,武汉430071

出　　处：《图书情报工作》2024年第8期97-111,共15页Library and Information Service

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“煤炭清洁燃烧与低碳利用”战略研究与专项总体课题(项目编号:XDA29010500);中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项课题“双碳”行动计划战略研究(项目编号:GHJ-ZLZX-2024-07);中国科学院文献情报能力建设专项课题“支撑院科技规划与布局的全球科技态势战略研判”(项目编号:E3KZ471001)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]依据颠覆性技术发展早期特征建立弱信号识别指标体系,基于不同信号的特征差异和多源数据视角设计多信号过滤器,实现颠覆性技术早期识别。[方法/过程]构建颠覆性技术弱信号识别漏斗模型,选取新颖性、弱信号潜力性特征指标设计主流技术信号过滤器,选取持续性、高价值性特征指标设计噪声信号过滤器,选取突变性、前瞻性特征指标设计渐进性创新弱信号过滤器,分层过滤掉主流技术信号、噪声信号和渐进性创新弱信号,筛选出颠覆性技术弱信号。[结果/结论]选取储氢领域开展实证分析,通过对储氢领域颠覆性技术弱信号识别结果进行战略规划及权威报告验证,证明了方法的有效性。[Purpose/Significance]The weak signal recognition index system is established according to the early characteristics of disruptive technology development,and multi-signal filters are designed based on the features of different signals and the perspective of multi-source data to realize the early identification of disruptive technology.[Method/Process]It conducted the funnel model of weak signal recognition for disruptive technologies and designed the mainstream technology signal filter on the indicators of novelty and weak signal potential,the noise signal filter on the persistence and high value,and the progressive innovation weak signal filter on the mutability and prospective characteristics.By filtering out mainstream technology signals,noise signals and gradual innovation weak signals,it screened out disruptive technology weak signals.[Result/Conclusion]This paper selects the field of hydrogen storage to carry out empirical analysis.Through strategic planning and authoritative verification of weak signal recognition results of disruptive technologies in the field of hydrogen storage,it proves the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 弱信号 技术识别 信号过滤器 漏斗模型 

分 类 号：G250[文化科学—图书馆学]