考虑新能源不确定性的调度计划安全稳定校核方法  

Security and stability checking method of dispatching plan considering uncertainty of new energy

作　　者：周海锋 徐伟 沙立成[3] 孙泽伦 陈峻楠 ZHOU Haifeng;XU Wei;SHA Licheng;SUN Zelun;CHEN Junnan(NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China;State Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Protection and Control,Nanjing 211106,China;State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏南京211106 [2]智能电网保护和运行控制国家重点实验室,江苏南京211106 [3]国网北京市电力公司,北京100031

出　　处：《电力工程技术》2024年第3期63-70,共8页Electric Power Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部科技项目“高比例电缆大型城市电网无功电压多维度动态协调控制技术研究”(5100-202111025A-0-0-00)。

摘　　要：基于发生概率最高的新能源功率预测数据进行确定性调度计划安全稳定校核,其结论与电网实际情况相差较大。为提高安全稳定校核结果的适应性,提出一种考虑新能源不确定性的调度计划安全稳定校核方法。基于传统确定性调度计划安全稳定量化评估结果,构建计及新能源场站预测功率置信区间约束的安全稳定裕度最小化模型,实现高风险计划方式的有效识别。基于有功灵敏度对新能源场站进行等值聚合和不确定性变量降维,提高安全稳定裕度最小化模型的求解效率。基于并行处理平台进行调度计划多方式分组并行安全校核,得到考虑新能源功率预测不确定性的安全稳定校核结果。所提方法可有效提升高比例新能源电网调度计划安全稳定校核的准确性和时效性。实际电网算例验证了所提方法的有效性。Based on the new energy power prediction data with the highest probability of occurrence to check the security and stability of the deterministic dispatching plan,the conclusion is quite different from the actual situation of the power grid.In order to improve the adaptability of the results,a security and stability checking method of dispatching plan considering uncertainty of new energy is proposed.Based on the quantitative assessment results of the safety and stability of traditional deterministic dispatching plan,a safety and stability margin minimization model with confidence interval constraints on the predicted power of new energy stations is constructed to realize effective identification of high-risk planning modes.Based on the active power sensitivity,the equivalence aggregation and uncertainty variable dimensionality reduction of new energy stations are carried out to improve the efficiency of the security and stability margin minimization model.Based on the parallel processing platform,the multi-mode grouping parallel security check of the dispatching plan is carried out.The results of security and stability check considering the uncertainty of new energy power prediction are obtained.The proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy and timeliness of the security and stability check of the high-proportion new energy grid dispatching plan.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an actual grid case.

关 键 词：新能源发电 功率预测 新能源出力不确定性 调度计划 高风险计划方式 安全稳定校核 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]