模糊推理系统在内河通航风险评价中的应用--以长江干线为例  

Application of fuzzy inference system in the evaluation of inland navigation risk-taking the Yangtze River mainline as an example

作　　者：方婉薇 计明军 韩震 温都苏 FANG Wanwei;JI Mingjun;HAN Zhen;WEN Dusu(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第5期1731-1739,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971035);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(3132023603,3132022640)。

摘　　要：为评估内河通航风险,对408件长江干线历史事故进行致因分析,构建分类分级的内河通航风险评价指标体系;在模糊推理系统(Fuzzy Inference System,FIS)中引入突变理论(Catastrophe Theory,CT),构建基于CT FIS的风险评价模型;对59个历史案例进行实证分析。结果显示:在59个样本中,中等风险及以上的样本数分数为88.1%;对各风险评价指标进一步分析发现,人的因素是影响长江干线通航风险的首要因素,货物和船舶因素相对于船员、管理和环境因素具有相对较低的影响;将人为可控的影响因素控制在安全状态时,系统的总风险可显著降低。This study aims to develop a scientific and effective risk assessment model for inland waterway navigation.Firstly,to effectively identify the influencing factors,408 historical accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River were analyzed in terms of accident causation.Based on the results of the above accident causation analysis,and combined with the results of previous research,a categorized and graded risk assessment index system was constructed for the inland waterway navigation system.Then,the Catastrophe Theory(CT)was introduced into the Fuzzy Inference System(FIS),and the risk assessment model for inland waterway navigation based on CT FIS was constructed.The model improves the defect that simple fuzzy rules are difficult to reflect the complex mapping relationships within complex systems.Finally,59 historical accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River were taken as examples to verify the validity and reliability of the proposed model.The result of the case study shows that 88.1%of the 59 samples are in the medium and above risk level.This is consistent with the actual results of the samples.Further analysis of the risk assessment indicators for each level reveals that human factors are the primary factors leading to navigation accidents on the Yangtze River.Also,the result reveals that the influence of cargo and ships on navigation accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River is relatively low compared with that of crew,management,and environmental factors.When human-controllable influencing factors are controlled in a safe state,the overall risk is greatly reduced.The contribution of this study is that the risk assessment model proposed in this paper provides a new way of solving the problem of risk evaluation of inland navigation and is a useful exploration of the risk evaluation method of the complex system.In addition,the results of the case study in this paper can provide some inspiration for the safety management of the Yangtze River shipping and promote the sustainable development of inland w

关 键 词：安全工程 水运安全 内河航运管理 风险评价模型 模糊推理系统 突变理论 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]