基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型构建  

Construction of“defining city,land,population,and industry based on water”regulation and control model based on spatial equilibrium of water resources

作　　者：魏豪杉 王红瑞[1] 郏鹏鑫 周利超 李永坤 刘昌明[1,2] WEI Haoshan;WANG Hongrui;JIA Pengxin;ZHOU Lichao;LI Yongkun;LIU Changming(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Linyi Natural Resources and Planning Bureau,Linyi 276001,China;Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]临沂市自然资源和规划局,山东临沂276001 [4]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第3期71-77,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279005);国家发展和改革委员会“四水四定”政策研究项目(23-10-13)。

摘　　要：为实现未来不同时间尺度下的水资源空间均衡与动态调控,创建了一套完整严谨、可动态调控的“四水四定”模型体系。通过模糊信息粒化窗口的支持向量机模型预测区域未来总用水量,利用基于时间序列相似性分析的自回归支持向量机模型预测区域未来分用水量,并对两类数据进行不确定性分析;构建了复杂回归函数对各类用水指标进行情景预测,经统计检验后将其作为当前用水模式下未来用水指标;构建了“四水四定”水资源承载力模型和水资源空间均衡模型,基于未来总用水量、未来各分用水量、未来用水指标,选用水资源负载系数、用水效益和水土资源匹配系数3个指标,结合基尼系数量化水资源空间均衡度,分析当前用水模式下未来水资源均衡度;构建了最优化模型,以最小化基尼系数为目标函数调整未来用水模式,实现水资源动态调控。所创建的模型体系可以实现未来不同时间尺度下的水资源空间均衡与动态调控。In order to realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future,a complete and rigorous model system for“defining city,land,population,and industry based on water”,suitable for balance measurement and dynamic control of water resources in different provinces and cities,was created.The total regional water consumption was predicted by the support vector machine(SVM)model based on fuzzy information granulation window,the regional sub-water consumption was predicted by the autoregressive-SVM model based on time series similarity analysis,and uncertainty of the two types of data was analyzed.Complex regression functions were constructed to predict various water use indicators in different scenarios,which were used as future water use indicators under current water use pattern after statistical test.Then,a water resources carrying capacity model of“defining city,land,population,and industry based on water”and a water resouces spatial equilibrium model were constructed,and three indicators including the water resources loading coefficient,water consumption efficiency,and matching factor of water and soil resources were selected based on the future total water consumption,future sub-water consumption,and future water use indicators,to quantify the spatial equilibrium degree of water resources in combination with the Gini coefficient and analyze the future equilibrium degree of water resources under current water use pattern.Finally,an optimization model was constructed,with minimization of the Gini coefficient as the objective function,to adjust the future water use pattern and realize dynamic regulation of water resources.The model system can realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future.

关 键 词：“四水四定” 水资源空间均衡 水资源动态调控 时间序列相似性 支持向量机模型 模糊信息粒化窗口 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] TU981[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]