基于碳承载力对河南省能源消费碳排放及其驱动因素的研究  

Carbon Emission and Driving Factors of Energy Consumption in Henan Province Based on Carbon Carrying Capacity

作　　者：陶勤 王世航[1] 徐胜祥[2] 杨震[1] 赵明松[1] 王奇 邓良 TAO Qin;WANG Shihang;XU Shengxiang;YANG Zhen;ZHAO Mingsong;WANG Qi;DENG Liang(School of Geomatics,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan,Anhui 232001,China;Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;Anhui Institute of Geological Surveying and Mapping Technology,Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学空间信息与测绘工程学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]中国科学院南京土壤研究所,南京210008 [3]安徽省地质测绘技术院,合肥230022

出　　处：《土壤》2024年第2期439-447,共9页Soils

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA28100500);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085MD88);国家自然科学基金项目(31700369)资助。

摘　　要：基于河南省近20年的能源消费碳排放数据和陆地生态系统碳承载力数据,对近年来研究区碳排放量情况进行了分析,并采用LMDI因素分解模型和Tapio脱钩模型对碳排放驱动因素以及与经济耦合情况进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年,河南省碳排放量呈现“先急后缓”的增长状态,在2012年后增加量开始减少并逐渐趋于稳定。(2)整体上,经济产出效应和人口规模效应对碳排放起促进作用;与之相反,能源消费强度效应和能源消费结构效应抑制了碳排放,经济产出效应的影响在减少,能源消费强度效应的影响在增加。(3)由Tapio脱钩模型分析得出,河南省碳排放与经济增长之间以弱脱钩为主,脱钩指数逐年减小,逐步向强脱钩状态迈进。总体上,2000—2020年河南省碳排放情况得到了很好的控制,合理规划土地利用、提高新能源的消费比重、降低能源消费强度对该地区节能减排具有重要意义。Carbon emission data of energy consumption and carbon carrying capacity data of terrestrial ecosystem in Henan Province in recent 20 years were used to analyze carbon emissions.Based on the LMDI factorization model and Tapio decoupling model,the coupling between the driving factors of carbon emissions and economy were discussed.The results show that:1)From 2000 to 2020,carbon emissions in Henan Province showed a“rapid and then slow”growth,and the increase began to decrease and gradually stabilize after 2012.2)Overall,carbon emissions were driven by economic output effect and population scale effect.On the contrary,carbon emissions were inhibited by energy consumption intensity effect and energy consumption structure effect.The influence of economic output was decreasing,while the influence of energy consumption intensity was increasing.3)According to the Tapio decoupling model,the decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth in Henan Province was mainly weak decoupling,and the decoupling index was decreasing year by year,and gradually moving towards a strong decoupling.In general,the carbon emission situation in Henan Province was well controlled from 2000 to 2020.Rational planning of land use,increasing the proportion of new energy consumption and reducing energy consumption intensity are recommended for energy saving and emission reduction in the region.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放 LMDI因素分解模型 Tapio脱钩模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]