基于EKC理论下碳排放与经济增长的二者关系研究——浙江省与安徽省的对比分析  

Research on the Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Based on EKC Theory:A Comparative Analysis of Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province

作　　者：何飞扬 刘天乐 周智杰 胡榕[1] HE Feiyang;LIU Tianle;ZHOU Zhijie;HU Rong(College of Liberal Arts and Law,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 311300,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Shenzhen Guangdong 518055,China;School of Earth,Society&Environment,University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Illinois,USA)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学文法学院,浙江杭州311300 [2]哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)经济管理学院,广东深圳518055 [3]伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳–香槟分校地球、社会与环境学院,伊利诺伊州

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第6期21-29,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基项目“粤港澳大湾区绿色经济发展的时空演化与协同机制研究”(2022A1515110238);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“双碳目标下粤港澳大湾区生态环境协同治理的理论探究与机制设计”(GD23XGL089);浙江省新苗人才计划“华东六省一市碳排放与经济增长EKC分析及影响机制研究”(2023R412002);国家级大学生创新训练项目“东盟10+3碳排放量与经济增长的脱钩关系及其驱动因素研究”(202210341016)。

摘　　要：碳排放与经济增长二者关系协调对积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和具有重大意义。论文以浙江与安徽为对比案例,从环境库兹涅茨曲线理论出发,基于脱钩模型和因素分解法,分析1997—2020年省域碳排放与经济增长的EKC曲线、脱钩态势及驱动因素。研究表明,浙江、安徽两省碳排放与经济增长EKC不符合传统倒“U”型曲线,均经历两次拐点,浙江为“N”型EKC,拐点年约为2007年和2014年,对应人均经济总量为36766元和73388元,安徽省为微弱的倒“N”型EKC曲线,拐点年约为1998年和2013年,对应人均经济总量为4452元和32733元;浙江碳排放脱钩由扩张负脱钩向强脱钩与弱脱钩方向转变,安徽以弱脱钩状态为主;能源结构与强度效应对浙江省的碳排放脱钩促进作用明显,而经济增长与能源结构效应对安徽省碳排放脱钩起负向作用。The coordination between carbon emissions and economic growth is of great significance to actively and steadily promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Taking Zhejiang and Anhui as a comparative case,starting from the theory of environmental Kuznets curve,based on the decoupling model and factor decomposition method,this paper analyzes the EKC curve,decoupling trend and driving factors of provincial carbon emissions and economic growth from 1997 to 2020.The results show that the carbon emission and economic growth EKC of Zhejiang and Anhui provinces do not conform to the traditional inverted U-shaped curve,and both experience two inflection points:Zhejiang has a positive N-shaped EKC,the inflection point years are about 2007 and 2014,and the corresponding per capita GDP is 36766 CNY and 73388 CNY,and Anhui Province has a weak inverted N-shaped EKC curve,the inflection point years are about 1998 and 2013,and the per capita GDP is 4452 CNY and 32733 CNY.Zhejiang’s carbon emission decoupling has changed from expanding negative decoupling to strong decoupling and weak decoupling,and Anhui is dominated by weak decoupling.The effect of energy structure and intensity has a significant effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province,while the effect of economic growth and energy structure has a negative effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in Anhui Province.

关 键 词：碳排放 经济增长 环境库兹涅茨曲线 脱钩分析 LMDI因素分解法 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]