基于改进BP神经网络的河北省碳排放预测  

Carbon Emission Prediction of Hebei Province Based on Improved BP Neural Network

作　　者：王永利[1] 李颐雯 王欢 董鹏旭 滕越 蔺媛[2] 刘琳[1] WANG Yongli;LI Yiwen;WANG Huan;DONG Pengxu;TENG Yue;LIN Yuan;LIU Lin(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of New Energy,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学新能源学院,北京102206

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第6期30-37,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“‘双碳’目标下煤炭-油气-电力协同减排路径优化及保障机制研究”(22YJA630093)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标背景下,针对河北省高碳经济发展模式难以改变、以往预测模型难以满足现实需求等问题。论文根据统计年鉴数据,研究河北省能源消费趋势和分行业碳排放特征,并借助脱钩指数探究河北省碳排放动态变化趋势,选取IPCC二氧化碳排放的计算方法,基于6项碳排放量影响因素建立遗传算法(GA)优化BP神经网络的河北省碳排放模型,对河北省2021—2030年碳排放量进行仿真预测。结果显示:河北省能源效率低于全国水平,河北省工业碳排放量最高;河北省的经济增长与碳排放之间主要呈弱脱钩态势;GA-BP模型预测结果比BP模型更加稳定,误差较小,更适合用于碳排放量的预测。预测结果显示,河北省未来碳排放量呈缓慢增长趋势,以期为政府决策提供理论依据,助力河北省“双碳”目标的实现。Under the background of“double carbon”goal,it is difficult to change the development mode of high carbon economy in Hebei Province,and the previous prediction model is difficult to meet the realistic demand.According to the data of the statistical yearbook,this paper studies the energy consumption trend and carbon emission characteristics of different industries in Hebei Province were studied,and the dynamic change trend of carbon emission in Hebei Province was explored by means of decoupling index.The calculation method of IPCC carbon dioxide emission was selected,and the carbon emission model of Hebei Province was optimized by genetic algorithm(GA)based on six influencing factors of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions in Hebei Province during 2021-2030 were simulated and predicted.The results showed that the energy efficiency of Hebei province was lower than the national level,and the industrial carbon emission of Hebei province was the highest.In Hebei Province,economic growth and carbon emissions mainly show a weak decoupling trend.The prediction results of GA-BP model are more stable than that of BP model,and the error is smaller,which is more suitable for the prediction of carbon emissions.The predicted results show that the carbon emission of Hebei Province will increase slowly in the future,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the government to make decisions,and help Hebei Province to achieve the“double carbon”goal.

关 键 词：碳排放预测 BP神经网络 脱钩分析 河北省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]