基于BP神经网络和路径分析模型的生态园林城市——以郑州为例  

Research on Afforestation Scale Prediction of Ecological Garden City Based on BP Neural Network and Path Analysis Model:Taking Zhengzhou as an Example

作　　者：郭慧锋 刘高飞 GUO Huifeng;LIU Gaofei(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330063,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学土木建筑学院,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第6期85-91,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学规划项目“基于PSR模型的智慧城市与智慧产业融合发展耦合协调研究”(GL22130);南昌航空大学研究生创新专项资金项目“基于BP神经网络和路径分析模型的城市绿化规模预测研究——以郑州为例”(YC2022-132);江西省智慧建筑工程研究中心开放基金项目“基于演化博弈的智慧城市生态环境建设相关主体利益诉求研究”(HK20213001)。

摘　　要：生态园林城市绿化规模的预测是生态园林城市发展中的一个核心问题,其与经济指标、社会指标、环境指标存在着复杂的非线性关系。BP神经网络由于具有良好的非线性拟合性能,而被应用于各种预测领域。首先,采用文献分析法梳理出固定资产投资额、GDP等26个影响生态园林城市绿化建设的因素。其次,以2019年被命名为国家生态园林城市的郑州市为研究对象,基于BP神经网络理论训练了生态园林城市绿化规模的预测模型,并对训练集、测试集的预测值和真实值进行对比分析。最后,通过构建路径分析模型梳理出26个影响因素中复杂的因果关系,包括直接间接影响、正负反馈、路径系数等。研究发现:训练的“26-7-1”网络结构的BP神经网络能够准确预测出生态园林城市的绿化规模,进而可为生态园林城市发展中,如何科学、合理地预测适应城市发展的绿化规模提供依据;构建的路径分析模型,可以反映城市发展中各影响因素以何种方式和强度影响生态园林城市绿化建设。The prediction of afforestation scale of eco-garden city is a core problem in the development of eco-garden city,which has complex nonlinear relationship with economic index,social index and environmental index.Because of its good nonlinear fitting performance,BP neural network has been applied in various prediction fields.First of all,26 influencing factors such as fixed asset investment and GDP were sorted out by literature analysis.Secondly,Zhengzhou,which was named as the National eco-Garden city in 2019,was taken as the research object,and the prediction model of eco-garden city greening scale was trained based on the BP neural network theory,and the predicted value and the real value of the training set and the test set were compared and analyzed.Finally,the complex causal relationship among 26 influencing factors,including direct and indirect influence,positive and negative feedback,path coefficient,is sorted out by constructing a path analysis model.The results show that the trained“26-7-1”network structure BP neural network can accurately predict the green scale of ecological garden city,which can provide the basis for how to scientifically and reasonably predict the green scale of ecological garden city in the development of ecological garden city.The path analysis model constructed can reflect the way and intensity of each influencing factor in urban development to affect the urban greening construction of ecological garden.

关 键 词：生态园林城市 绿化规模 预测模型 BP神经网络 路径分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F291.1