人民币国际化、汇率波动、跨境结算与中国进出口贸易——基于两国开放经济的均衡模型与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析  

RMB Internationalization,Exchange Rate Volatility,RMB Cross-border Settlement and China's Trade Activity:An Analysis from the Belt and Road Initiative Countries Based on the Equilibrium Model of Two Sector Open Economy

作　　者：欧阳海琴 凌爱凡 Ouyang Haiqin;Ling Aifan

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学财政金融学院,南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学博士后流动站,南昌330013 [3]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,上海201620

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2023年第4期82-100,共19页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71771107,72071098);国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA045);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(J20216)。

摘　　要：如何有效和快速地促进国内国际双循环成为当下经济发展中遇到的新问题。本文基于两国市场组成的开放经济均衡模型,以货币国际化、汇率风险、货币跨境结算和进出口贸易为视角,通过人民币国际化改善中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易路径,推进“双循环”格局良性互动。理论分析发现,货币国际化程度的上升促进货币所有国的进出口贸易水平,而汇率水平、汇率波动率和跨境结算份额是该国货币国际化对其进出口贸易水平产生影响的可能渠道。进一步使用中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易数据实证发现,人民币国际化程度的提升能够显著改善中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易水平,与理论预期一致,并且在控制了若干宏观变量后依然显著。与传统文献结果不同,我们的实证结果发现,人民币国际化水平上升引起进出口贸易水平增加,不是通过汇率水平增加或汇率风险下降的渠道产生,而是由于人民币跨境结算占比份额上升形成了人民币结算的“同伴效应”导致。本文研究对如何稳步推进入民币国际化和提升双循环经济发展有一定的参考价值。A new problem of economic development today is how to effectively promote a double cycle between China and internationality.In this study,a framework of currency internationalization,exchange rate risk and of cross-border settlement was built based on"an equilibrium model of open economy of two markets".We would like to impel the interactions of this double cycle through RMB internationalization,which improving import and export trade of China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries.Theoretical analysis in this paper reveals that degree of currency in-ternationalization has a great important effect on import and export trade,while exchange rate,exchange rate volatility and cross-border settlement are responsible for the effect.In addition,the solid evidences of import and export trade of China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries indeed show RMB internationalization make a great difference to the import and export trade,which is corresponding with the theoretical analysis very well.Unlike traditional literatures,our results indicate RMB internationalization can increase import and export trade by the peer effect of RMB settlement,rather than by increasing in exchange rate or decreasing in exchange rate risk,and the peer effect is result from the in-creasing of RMB cross-border settlement.This research can provide some suggestions for steadily promoting the RMB internationalization and accelerating the economic development of thc double cycle.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 一带一路 汇率水平 开放经济模型 汇率波动率 人民币跨境结算 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.6F125