环南海区域航空网络空间演化及影响机制研究  

Spatial evolution and impact mechanism of airline network in the South China Sea Rim Region

作　　者：孙舒琦 王帮娟 刘承良[1,2] 刘通[1] Sun Shuqi;Wang Bangjuan;Liu Chengliang;Liu Tong(School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Institute for Global Innovation&Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第5期831-842,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJL109)资助。

摘　　要：环南海地区作为中国“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议的起锚之地,厘清其区域的航空连通性及其发育机制对促进各国经贸合作具有重要意义。为此,本文通过构建航空连通性指数并运用优势流和TERGM模型,尝试刻画环南海区域航空网络的空间演化规律并揭示其自组织发育机制。研究发现:①环南海区域内航空枢纽等级体系保持基本恒定性和一定突变性,新加坡、吉隆坡、雅加达、曼谷、马尼拉、中国香港、广州等城市是环南海区域航空联系的关键枢纽。②环南海区域内航空联系稳定于印尼–马来西亚–泰国三角区,并呈现向东部中国沿海城市及菲律宾蔓延态势,轴辐组织呈现出多中心演化态势,遵循区域集聚规律。③在影响机制方面,网络演化主要受到内生结构、城市属性与城际关系的共同作用。闭合三元结构对航空联系具有正向促进作用,非核心城市的航空联系扩张迅速,低等级节点在网络演化过程中愈发呈现主动扩张趋势。经济发展水平、城市规模、制度邻近性、文化邻近性以及合作事件对航空客运均具有正向促进作用,地理距离和冲突事件对航空联系产生负向影响,网络整体呈现稳定发展态势。The South China Sea Rim region is the anchor of China’s“21st Century Maritime Silk Road”initi-ative.It is of great significance to clarify the regional aviation connectivity and its development mechanism to promote economic and trade cooperation among countries.To this end,this paper attempts to describe the spa-tial evolution of the regional airline network around the South China Sea and reveal its self-organization devel-opment mechanism by constructing an aviation connectivity index,using the dominant flow and TERGM mod-els.The results are as follows:First,the aviation hub hierarchy in the South China Sea Rim region maintains a basic stability and a certain degree of mutation.The capitals of ASEAN countries with Singapore,Kuala Lum-pur,Jakarta,Bangkok,and Manila as the core,as well as Hong Kong,Guangzhou and other cities are the avi-ation hubs of the South China Sea Rim region.Second,the connection within the South China Sea Rim region is stable in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand triangle,and it is spreading to the coastal cities of China and the Philippines in the east.The hub-and-spoke organization presents a multi-center evolution trend,following the law of regional agglomeration.Finally,the closed ternary structure has a positive effect on the air connection,the air connection of non-core cities expands rapidly,and the low-level nodes show a trend of active expansion in the process of network evolution.The urban economic development,city size,institution,culture and co-operation events all have positive impacts on air passenger transport enhancement,while geographical distance and the conflict events have a negative impact on air connections,and the overall network presents a gradual development trend.

关 键 词：环南海区域 航空网络 节点连通性 指数随机图(TERGM)模型 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]