城际铁路综合客运枢纽停车设施预测研究  

Research on Passenger Flow and Parking Facilities Forecast of Inter-city Rail Integrated Passenger Transport Hub

作　　者：王国娟 张笑菊 魏照坤 张瑞 Wang Guojuan;Zhang Xiaoju;Wei Zhaokun;Zhang Rui(School of Traffic and Transportation,Xi'an Traffic Engineering Institute,Xi'an 710300,China;School of Ecommerce and Logistics,Beijing Technology and Busness University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Transportation,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通工程学院交通运输学院,西安710300 [2]北京工商大学电商与物流学院,北京100048 [3]山东科技大学交通学院,青岛266590

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第5期96-100,105,共6页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：陕西高校青年创新团队(城市轨道交通道床关键技术创新团队);北京市教育委员会社科计划一般项目(SM202010011008);2022年度陕西省艺术科学规划项目(2022HZ1667);北京市教育委员会社科计划一般项目(SM202010011008)。

摘　　要：本文以江苏省淮安市洪泽站综合客运枢纽为例,对小型旅游城市城际铁路综合客运枢纽客流及停车设施进行预测研究。首先,以回归分析法和趋势外推法为基础模型,构建了同时考虑时间因素和主成分因素的城际铁路综合客运枢纽客流预测模型;其次,根据预测模型对洪泽站客流量、对外发送客流量、交通集散方式、各交通方式客流量进行预测;最后,根据预测客流量进一步预测出综合交通枢纽主要停车设施规模。结果表明:洪泽站综合客运枢纽大型停车位预测值为133个、机动车停车位预测值为323个,非机动车停车位预测值为300个。The study takes Jiangsu Huai'an Hongze Station as an example to predict the passenger flow and parking facilities of Inter-city rail integrated passenger transport hub in small tourist cities.Firstly,based on the regression analysis method and trend extrapolation model,a passenger flow forecasting model of Inter-city rail integrated passenger transport hub is constructed considering both time factors and principal component factors;secondly,based on the prediction model,the passenger flow of Hongze Station,outbound passenger flow,transportation distribution methods,and passenger flow of various transportation modes were predicted;finally,based on the predicted passenger flow,the number and scale of the main transportation facilities in the comprehensive transportation hub can be further predicted.The results show that the predicted number of large parking spaces at the Hongze Station comprehensive passenger hub is 133,the predicted number of motor vehicle parking spaces is 323,and the predicted number of non motor vehicle parking spaces is 300.

关 键 词：城际铁路 综合客运枢纽 客流 停车设施 预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]