SSP-RCP情景下京津冀城市群夏季热环境空间网络识别与评估  

Identifying and Assessing the Spatial Network of Summer Urban Heat Environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration under the SSP-RCP Scenarios

作　　者：乔治[1] 陈嘉悦 王楠 徐新良[2] 王方 QIAO Zhi;CHEN Jiayue;WANG Nan;XU Xinliang;WANG Fang(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;Tianjin Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Tianjin 300011,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [3]天津市科学技术发展战略研究院,天津300011

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2024年第3期29-36,共8页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52270187、41971389);天津市自然科学基金项目(21JCYBJC00390);国家高分辨率对地观测重大科技专项(05-Y30B01-9001-19/20-4)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化加剧和城市高温热浪频发,严重影响人居环境健康和社会可持续发展。该文综合GIS、形态学空间格局分析、电路理论和图论法等理论与技术,基于共享社会经济路径(SharedSocio-economicPathways,SSPs)与典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)联合情景框架的未来气候数据,定量识别2021-2100年低辐射强迫情景(SSP1-RCP2.6)、中等辐射强迫情景(SSP2-RCP4.5)和高辐射强迫情景(SSP5-RCP8.5)下京津冀城市群夏季热岛斑块时空格局并评估热环境空间网络时空演变过程和结构特征。结果表明:①2021-2100年京津冀城市群夏季热岛斑块类型以核心型和边缘型为主导,热环境源地数量、面积以及廊道数量、总长度和电流密度随时间和情景强迫性提升呈增加趋势,其中源地和廊道集中增长区域由南向北迁移,而廊道高密度区域始终位于城市群东南部;②京津冀城市群热环境空间网络的电流密度之和、夹点稳定性、网络闭合度、节点连接率和网络连接度与情景强迫性呈正相关,城市群发展的时空不均衡性是影响城市群热环境空间网络结构特征变化的重要原因。研究结果可为未来情景城市群热环境空间网络分析提供技术范式,也可为城市群空间协同发展主动应对气候变化风险提供理论参考。Integrating theories and techniques such as GIS,morphological spatial pattern analysis,circuit theory and graph theo-ry,future climate data and land use scenario data based on the joint scenario framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),this paper quantitatively identified the spatial and temporal pat-terns of summer heat island patches in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under three future development scenarios,including the low radiative forcing scenario(SSP1-RCP2.6),the medium radiative forcing scenario(SSP2-RCP4.5)and the high radiative forcing scenario(SSP5-RCP8.5)from 2021 to 2100,and evaluated the spatio-temporal evolution process and structural characteristics of the spatial network of the summer urban heat environment.The results are as follows.OThe heat island patch type of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is dominated by core type and edge type from 2021 to 2100.The number and area of summer heat environment source sites as well as the number,total length and current density of corri-dors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration show an increasing trend with time and increasing scenario forcing.Among them,the concentrated growth areas of heat environment source sites and corridors in the urban agglomeration migrate significantly from south to north with time and enhanced scenario forcing,while the high-density areas of corridors are always located in the southeast of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.@The sum of current density,pinch point stability,closure,line point rate and connectivity of the spatial network of summer heat environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration are all positively correlated with scenario forcing.The spatial and temporal imbalance in the urban development is an important reason influencing the structural characteristics of the spatial network of summer urban heat environment.The study will provide a technical paradigm for future spatial network prediction and as

关 键 词：城市热环境 空间网络 SSP-RCP情景 京津冀城市群 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]