公众的社会政治态度稳定吗?——基于两份追踪调查的分析  

Are Social Attitudes of the Public Stable?—Analysis Based on Two Tracking Surveys

作　　者：马得勇 陆铭[2] MA Deyong;LU Ming(School of Government Administration,Shenzhen University,Guangdong,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of International Relations,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学政府管理学院,广东深圳518055 [2]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期95-107,共13页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AZZ003)。

摘　　要：公众对于抽象的政治社会问题的看法在多大程度上稳定和可靠?对这一问题的回答既关乎社会调查方法的可靠性,又关乎民意基础的稳定性。通过对“中国家庭追踪调查”和“大学生态度追踪调查”的分析发现,以问卷调查方式测量的态度确实在集合层次和个体层次均不够稳定,但大学生比普通民众的态度要更稳定。同时,受访者集合层次的态度变化呈现出较为明显的结构性特征,即对具体社会议题的态度比人格—认知及基础价值观相关问题的态度更易变化。对不同变量间做相关分析后发现,在个体层次,权威人格、认知闭合等心理特质、政治立场与个体态度的变化存在相关关系。因此,民众社会态度的不稳定并不能简单归因为测量误差,需要更为系统的研究。未来的研究一方面需要分析态度形成与改变的一般性因素,另一方面需要探讨中国人的社会政治态度改变与特殊的国情、制度及文化之间存在何种关联。To what extent are the public’s views on abstract political and social issues stable and reliable?This question concerns both the reliability of social survey methods and the stability of the foundation of public opinion.Analysis of the“China Family Panel Studies”and the“College Student Attitude Tracking Survey”has found that attitudes measured through questionnaire surveys are indeed not stable enough at both the aggregate and individual levels,but college students’attitudes are more stable than those of the general public.At the same time,attitude changes at the respondent aggregate level show clear structural characteristics:attitudes on specific social issues are more likely to change than those related to personality-cognition and fundamental values.Correlation analyses between different variables reveal that at the individual level,there exists a correlation between changes in individual attitudes and psychological traits such as authoritarian personality,cognitive closure,political stance.Therefore,the instability of public social attitudes cannot be simply attributed to measurement errors,but requires more systematic research.Future studies need to analyze general factors affecting attitude formation and change,and explore the relationship between changes in the social and political attitudes of Chinese people and the country’s specific national conditions,institutions,and culture.

关 键 词：社会政治态度 问卷调查 态度改变 测量误差 认知心理 

分 类 号：G05[文化科学]