基于两种生态位模型对苏州市湿地水鸟潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential habitats for waterbirds in Suzhou wetland based on two ecological niche models

作　　者：朱元航 姜琳琳 穆清[1] 姚思佳 解晋敏 蒋涛 杨朝辉 ZHU Yuanhang;JIANG Linlin;MU Qing;YAO Sijia;XIE Jinmin;JIANG Tao;YANG Zhaohui(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,SUST,Suzhou 215009,China;School of Geography Science and Geomatics Engineering,SUST,Suzhou 215009,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏苏州215009 [2]苏州科技大学地理科学与测绘工程学院,江苏苏州215009

出　　处：《苏州科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期48-55,共8页Journal of Suzhou University of Science and Technology（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41701477)。

摘　　要：以苏州市为例,利用42种水鸟的分布数据和气候因子、地理因子及遥感影像因子相结合,使用Maxent模型和GARP模型对水鸟适生区进行预测。通过对42种水鸟适生区的预测和叠加,获得4幅水鸟适生区预测图。结果表明:引入地理因子可以有效预测水鸟的适生区,4个预测结果中Maxent水鸟种群适生区分布预测图精度最高。预测结果显示,水鸟高适生区分布在张家港沿江、太湖周边、阳澄湖周边。研究结果为水鸟适生区预测提供了新思路,对保护苏州市水鸟多样性、维持苏州市湿地生态系统安全和稳定具有参考价值。Taking Suzhou City as an example,this paper predicted the suitable areas for water birds by combining the distribution data of 42 species of water birds with weather factors,geographical factors and remote sensing image factors,and using Maxent model and GARP model.By predicting and overlaying the suitable areas of 42 species of water birds,we obtained four prediction maps of suitable areas for water birds.The results show that the introduction of geographical factors can effectively predict the suitable areas of waterfowl.Among the four prediction results,the Maxent distribution prediction map of suitable areas of waterfowl population has the top accuracy.The prediction results showed that the suitable areas of waterfowl population were distributed along the Yangtze River of Zhangjiagang,around Taihu Lake and Yangcheng Lake.The results of this study provide a new idea for the prediction of waterbird suitable areas,and have a reference value for protecting the diversity of waterbirds and maintaining the safety and stability of the wetland ecosystem of Suzhou.

关 键 词：苏州市 地理因子 环境变量 GARP模型 Maxent模型 水鸟潜在分布区 

分 类 号：X176[环境科学与工程—环境科学]