粤港澳大湾区复合灾害系统暴露度评估  

Exposure Assessment of Compound Disaster System in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：黄莉[1,2] 王芸清 王伟 宋月 石雨欣[3] HUANG Li;WANG Yunqing;WANG Wei;SONG Yue;SHI Yuxin(School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Harbour,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2024年第4期95-101,共7页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001002);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71974052)。

摘　　要：为了针对性地预防和降低复合灾害给城市带来的灾害损失,对于链式复合灾害系统暴露度开展研究具有重要的理论实践意义。通过对链式复合灾害系统暴露度的研究分析,综合考虑现有研究并界定了复合灾害系统暴露度的内涵,推导建立了链式复合灾害系统暴露度评价模型和计算方法。以粤港澳大湾区暴雨-滑坡灾害链为例进行实证分析,从人口、经济、社会等方面筛选构建区域灾害链暴露度评估指标体系,运用序关系分析和TOPSIS法计算得到湾区52个区县的暴雨、滑坡单一灾害暴露度指数,进而运用构建的链式复合灾害系统的暴露度理论模型和ArcGIS得到粤港澳大湾区暴雨-滑坡灾害链暴露度区划图,并根据各区域灾害链暴露度属性提出相应的灾害防范化解重大风险应对措施。研究结果表明:经济发达地区对应的暴露度指数显著高于其他地区,低暴露度区集中在经济相对落后的地区,各指标中人口密度和地均GDP占主体地位,对地区暴露度的影响最高。通过对区域复合灾害系统暴露度的评估,可以为政府和相关部门提供合理的科学依据和决策支持,帮助政府、城市规划者和公众更好地了解和应对灾害风险,从而减少灾害的损失和影响。In order to prevent and reduce the disaster losses caused by compound disasters to cities,it was of great theoretical and practical significance to study the exposure degree of chain compound disaster system.Through the research and analysis of the exposure degree of chain compound disaster system,considering the existing research and defining the connotation of the exposure degree of the compound disaster system,the evaluation model and cal-culation method of the exposure degree of the chain compound disaster system were deduced and established.Tak-ing the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example for em-pirical analysis,the evaluation index system of regional disaster chain exposure was screened and constructed from the aspects of population,economy and society.The order relationship analysis and TOPSIS method were used to calculate the single disaster exposure index of rainstorm and landslide in 52 districts and counties in the bay area.Then,the theoretical model of exposure degree of chain compound disaster system and ArcGIS image processing technology were used to obtain the zoning map of rainstorm-landslide disaster chain exposure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and the corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation measures were put forward according to the exposure degree attribute of each regional disaster chain.The results showed that the expo-sure index corresponding to the economically developed areas was significantly higher than that of other regions,and the low exposure were mainly in the relatively backward areas.Among the indicators,population density and GDP per land area account for the main position,which had the highest impact on regional exposure.By the exposure of regional compound disaster systems,reasonable scientific basis and decision-making support could serve for the government and relevant departments,helping the government,urban planners,and the public better understand and respond to disaster risks,thereby red

关 键 词：复合灾害 粤港澳大湾区 暴露度评估 序关系分析 TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5