考虑组件衰减及安装角度的光伏功率预测及评估方法研究  

Photovoltaic Power Prediction and Evaluation Methods Considering Module Attenuation and Installation Angles

作　　者：周强 张晓忠 陈久益 沈炜 张翔 张宝利 董昕昕 张婕 薛明华 ZHOU Qiang;ZHANG Xiaozhong;CHEN Jiuyi;SHEN Wei;ZHANG Xiang;ZHANG Baoli;DONG Xinxin;ZHANG Jie;XUE Minghua(Jiangsu New Energy Co.,Ltd.,State Power Investment Group,Yancheng 224005,Jiangsu Province,China;Shanghai Minghua Electric Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电投集团江苏新能源有限公司,江苏盐城224005 [2]上海明华电力科技有限公司,上海200090

出　　处：《电力与能源》2024年第2期228-232,共5页Power & Energy

摘　　要：针对分布式光伏存在多种安装角度,不同安装角度组件性能存在差异以及异常情况难以评估的问题,提出了一种考虑组件衰减及安装角度的光伏功率预测及评估方法。利用某分布式屋顶光伏电站组件角度为南向倾角5°的实际运行数据,结合直散分离法和Hay法将已知水平总辐射强度转化为光伏倾斜面总辐射强度,并考虑组件出力与环境因素相关性以及组件衰减,评估了多种模型算法适用性,并选取最优模型对组件角度为北向倾角5°的光伏组件进行功率预测,最高预测精度可达94.94%。这为安装角度复杂多样的光伏场站组件性能评估提供了一种解决方案,可有效降低场站对数据运维的难度,提高不同安装条件下光伏组件性能评估的准确性。In view of the problems that there are many kinds of installation angles for distributed photovoltaic(PV),and it is difficult to evaluate module performance differences and abnormal conditions under different installation angles,a photovoltaic power prediction and evaluation method is proposed considering module attenuation and different installation angles.Based on the actual operating data of a distributed rooftop PV power station whose module angle is 5'southward inclination,the known horizontal total irradiance is converted into the total irradiance of the PV inclined plane by direct dispersion separation method and Hay method,and the applicability of various model algorithms is evaluated considering the correlation between component output and environmental factors as well as module attenuation.The optimal model is selected to predict the power of PV modules with the angle of 5'north inclination,and the highest prediction accuracy can reach 94.94%.This research provides a solution for the performance evaluation of PV modules with complex installation angles,which can effectively reduce the difficulty of data operation and maintenance at the station and improve the performance evaluation accuracy of PV modules under different installation conditions.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 安装角度 功率预测 组件衰减 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]