高速公路交通事故影响因素及异质性分析  

Influencing factors and heterogeneity analysis of highway traffic accidents

作　　者：赵晓华[1] 刘畅[1] 亓航 欧居尚[2] 姚莹[1] 郭淼 杨海益 ZHAO Xiao-hua;LIU Chang;QI Hang;OU Ju-shang;YAO Ying;GUO Miao;YANG Hai-yi(Beijing Key Lab oratory of Transportation,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Key Laboratory of Intelligent Police of Sichuan Province,Sichuan Police College,Chengdu 646000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市建设学部,北京100124 [2]四川警察学院智能警务四川省重点实验室,成都646000

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2024年第4期987-995,共9页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：智能警务四川省重点实验室资助项目(ZNJW2022KFZD001)。

摘　　要：本文采用随机参数logit模型,重点考虑未观察到的数据异质性,从道路线形条件、交通运行状态、气象环境条件和激进驾驶行为4个方面分析了高速公路交通事故的影响因素。结果表明,平面线形、纵面线形、拥堵指数、速度变异系数、天气条件、风力等级、急加速行为频率和急减速行为频率均对高速公路交通事故有显著影响;同时,在纵面线性、拥堵指数、急加速行为频率和急减速行为频率4个变量中发现了未观察到的异质性,且急减速行为频率与拥堵指数、急加速行为频率与急减速行为频率之间存在交互作用。本文对高速公路交通事故发生的原因做出科学合理的解释,为高速公路事故的科学治理提供理论支撑。In this paper,we analyze the influencing factors of highway traffic accidents from four aspects:road alignment conditions,traffic operation status,weather environment conditions and aggressive driving behavior,using a random parameter logit model and focusing on the unobserved data heterogeneity.The results showed that plane alignment,longitudinal alignment,congestion index,speed coefficient of variation,weather conditions,wind level,frequency of aggressive acceleration behavior and frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior all had significant effects on freeway traffic accidents;meanwhile,unobserved heterogeneity was found in the four variables of longitudinal alignment,congestion index,frequency of aggressive acceleration behavior and frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior,and the frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior and congestion index,frequency of aggressive There were interactions between the frequency of rapid acceleration behavior and the frequency of rapid deceleration behavior.The paper provides a scientific and reasonable explanation for the causes of highway traffic accidents and provides theoretical support for the scientific management of highway accidents.

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 高速公路 安全分析 影响因素 驾驶行为 未观察到的异质性 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]