零售商的定价策略选择与库存决策——考虑策略型消费者的过度自信与风险规避行为  

Retailer’s Pricing Strategy and Inventory Decision Considering Strategic Consumers’Overconfidence and Risk Aversion

作　　者：宋亚楠 岳泽新 谢冬 SONG Yanan;YUE Zexin;XIE Dong(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Postdoctoral Workstation,Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430223,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]武汉新芯集成电路制造公司,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第4期77-84,I0017-I0020,共12页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71902010);北京市社会科学基金项目(19GLC063);北京科技大学高水平拔尖人才项目(06500125);中央高校基本科研业务费精品文科项目(FRF-BR-19-004B)。

摘　　要：消费者的购买决策可能受到多种行为偏好的影响。本文考虑策略型消费者的过度自信与风险规避行为,基于固定价格和降价两种定价策略,构建了零售商库存决策模型,分析了消费者两种行为偏好对零售商定价策略选择和库存决策的影响,并探讨了过度自信与风险规避行为的相互作用。研究发现:1)当零售商采用降价策略时,库存水平和利润随消费者过度自信水平的提高而降低,随消费者风险规避程度的增加而提高;2)当消费者过度自信水平较低时,风险规避对零售商最优利润的影响较大,零售商选择降价策略将获得更高的利润;3)当消费者过度自信水平较高时,风险规避行为对零售商最优利润的影响较小,零售商选择固定价格策略将获得更高的利润。相关研究结论为考虑策略型消费者行为的零售商定价策略选择和最优库存决策提供参考。Strategic consumers are those who make deliberate decisions about when to make purchases in order to take advantage of possible discounts or promotions.Extensive research has been conducted on several facets of strategic consumer behavior.Research on risk-averse behavior among strategic consumers has advanced significantly,with several researchers providing empirical evidence of the presence of risk-averse behavior among strategic consumers.Nevertheless,there has been a limited amount of study available on strategic customers who exhibit overconfidence.Overconfidence conduct arises from the discoveries of cognitive psychology and is a prevalent cognitive bias seen in individuals.Recently,several researchers in the area of operations management have shown interest in it.Consumers may have cognitive biases towards random needs owing to overconfidence while making strategic decisions,as a result of the uncertainty surrounding market demand.Overconfidence among strategic consumers is the inclination for consumers to have excessive faith in their ability to accurately predict demand,even in situations when the consequences are unclear.This demonstrates a propensity for consumers to overestimate their accuracy in anticipating random events.Existing research clearly indicates that overconfidence behavior might cause customers to inaccurately assess the probability of acquiring things,hence impacting consumer decision-making and shop revenues.Hence,we will consider the strategic behavior of consumers by focusing on overconfidence and risk-aversion.This research examines the phenomenon of overconfidence and risk-averse behavior among strategic customers.We develop a retailer inventory choice model that examines the impact of customer preferences for fixed pricing and discounted pricing on the selection of retailer pricing strategies and inventory decisions.Additionally,we investigate the correlation between(overconfidence and risk-averse behavior)excessive self-assurance and cautious decision-making.The primary outcomes o

关 键 词：固定价格 降价 策略型消费者 过度自信 风险规避 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]