考虑日内温度变化的夏季温敏负荷模型及其时变参数的两阶段辨识方法  

Summer temperature-sensitive load model considering intra-day temperature variation and two-stage identification method of its time-varying parameters

作　　者：康进 刘晓峰[1] 周毅 高佳宁 吴浩[1] 鞠平 KANG Jin;LIU Xiaofeng;ZHOU Yi;GAO Jianing;WU Hao;JU Ping(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;East China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Shanghai 200002,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]国家电网有限公司华东分部,上海200002

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2024年第6期210-216,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2066601);华东电网多层级负荷与气象关联的日内稳态及气象突变特征分析关键技术研究(SGTYHT/21-JS-226)。

摘　　要：现有关于电力负荷温敏特性的研究大多仅关注长时间尺度上最高温度与最大负荷之间的关系,而未分析日内不同温度下的温敏特性。建立能反映日内温度变化的温敏负荷模型,并引入2个假设以解决模型可辨识性的问题;提出适用于参数辨识的数据筛选方法和温敏负荷模型时变参数的两阶段辨识方法。算例结果表明,所提方法可以准确且鲁棒地辨识温敏负荷模型的时变参数,并得到日内温敏负荷曲线及温敏负荷占比。The current researches about the temperature-sensitive characteristics of power loads mostly only focus on the relationship between the maximum temperature and maximum load on the long-time scale,but ignore the analysis of temperature-sensitive characteristics under different intra-day temperatures.A temperature-sensitive load model that can reflect the intra-day temperature change is built,and two assumptions are introduced to solve the problem of model identifiability.A data screening method suitable for parameter identification and a two-stage identification method for time-varying parameters of the temperature-sensitive load model are proposed.The example results show that the proposed method can accurately and robustly identify the time-varying parameters of the temperature-sensitive load model,and obtain the intra-day temperature-sensitive load curve and the ratio of temperature-sensitive load.

关 键 词：温敏负荷 时变参数 两阶段辨识 日内温度变化 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]