基于系统动力学的草地生态系统稳定性评价——以三江源国家公园黄河源玛多县为例  

Assessment of grassland ecosystem stability based on system dynamics--taking Maduo County,the source of the Yellow River in Sanjiangyuan National Park,as an example

作　　者：李佳颖 胡官正 曾维华[1] LI Jia-ying;HU Guan-zheng;ZENG Wei-hua(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;China Institute of Atomic Energy,Beijing 102413,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]中国原子能科学研究院,北京102413

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第6期3419-3433,共15页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB4202101);中科院-青海省政府联合专项(LHZX-2020-01-04)。

摘　　要：本文以三江源国家公园黄河源园区所在的玛多县为研究对象,从韧性、抵抗性、可持续性和变异性角度构建生态系统稳定性评价指标,辨析指标间的异同并提出合理的指标量化与分级标准;在此基础上,基于系统动力学方法建立了玛多县生态系统动态仿真模型;进一步,利用所构建的动态仿真模型,对玛多县2000~2100年的生态系统演化历程生态状况演化趋势进行模拟仿真;最后,基于模拟结果对其生态系统稳定性进行评估.评估结果表明:玛多县生态系统特征回归时间约为48.74a,韧性一般;生态系统崩溃时的食草强度与现状条件的食草强度之比为4.15,抵抗性较强;初始状态持续时间约为79.04a且朝着正向发展,可持续性较强;变异比率约为25.20%,变异性较大.玛多县生态系统稳定性综合评价结果为临界状态,需要从提高生态系统韧性和降低生态系统变异性的角度改善玛多县生态系统稳定性,确保其生态系统持续健康演替.This study focused on Maduo County,where the Yellow River Source Area of the Sanjiangyuan National Park located.An evaluation framework for ecosystem stability was constructed from the perspectives of resilience,resistance,persistence and variability,and proposed rational quantification and grading criteria by analyzing the similarities and disparities among these indicators.Based on this framework,the ecological evolution trends in Maduo County from 2000 to 2100 by developing a dynamic ecosystem simulation model with system dynamics method,and assessed the ecosystem stability based on the simulation results were further simulated.The characteristic return time of the Maduo County ecosystem is approximately 48.74 years was found,indicating an average level of resilience.The ratio of the grazing intensity at the time of ecosystem collapse to the current grazing intensity is 4.15,indicating robust resistance.The duration of the initial state spans around 79.04 years,demonstrating a positive trend and strong persistence.The variation rate is approximately 25.20%,indicating high variability.The comprehensive evaluation indicated a critical state of ecosystem stability in Maduo County,highlighting the need to enhance the ecosystem resilience and reduce variability to ensure the sustainable and healthy succession of the ecosystem.

关 键 词：稳定性 韧性 抵抗性 变异性 系统动力学 玛多县 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]