支付科技提升家庭消费韧性的机理与证据  

Mechanism and Evidence for Payment Technology Enhancing Household Consumption Resilience

作　　者：傅联英[1] 蔡煜 FU Lian-ying;CAI Yu(School of Economics and Finance,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou 362021,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第6期77-89,共13页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字正义视角下算法价格歧视的福利损益及向善治理研究”(22AJY016)。

摘　　要：在扩大内需、促进消费政策带动下,消费正由疫后恢复转向持续扩大,支付科技成为增强家庭消费韧性的新势能。基于前景理论和消费者均衡理论,揭示并识别支付科技影响家庭消费韧性的内在机理与传导路径。理论演绎分析发现,支付科技经由消费总量扩大化、消费结构多样化双重传导路径提升家庭消费韧性。在此基础上,利用2013—2019年CHFS数据展开实证检验,结果显示,支付科技显著提升了家庭消费韧性。在经过换用工具变量法、转用内生转换回归模型、改用家庭消费韧性子系统、替换核心变量测度方式及口径、排除同期自由贸易试验区以及国家信息消费试点政策干扰等稳健性检验后,基准结论仍稳健成立。异质性分析发现,支付科技对家庭消费韧性的提升效应依城市人口动态和物流服务能级而异,在人口扩张型城市和一级物流城市中更为明显。机制检验结果表明:一方面,支付科技通过增强消费能力、提高消费总量,进而提升家庭消费韧性;另一方面,支付科技通过增加消费品类、丰富消费结构,从而提升家庭消费韧性。其中,消费结构多样化是主渠道,消费总量扩大化是辅渠道。研究为理解支付科技赋能家庭消费韧性提供了理论逻辑和经验证据,各利益相关者未来应更为主动地拥抱金融科技,促进支付产业的有序发展、增进科技赋能的普惠程度、健全家庭消费韧性的制度保障,为助推消费高质量发展提供科技动能。Driven by the policies of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption,consumption is shifting from post-healing recovery to continuous expansion,and payment technology has become a new potential to enhance the resilience of household consumption.Based on prospect theory and consumer equilibrium theory,the authors reveal and identify the internal mechanism and transmission path of payment technology affecting household consumption resilience.Theoretical deduction analysis reveals that payment technology enhances the resilience of household consumption through the dual transmission paths of expanding the total consumption and diversifying the consumption structure.On this basis,the authors utilize the 2013-2019 CHFS data to carry out empirical tests,and it is found that payment technology significantly improves household consumption resilience.The baseline conclusion is still robust after the robustness test of switching to instrumental variable method,switching to endogenous switching regression model,converting to the subsystem of household consumption resilience,replacing the core variable measurement method and caliber,and eliminating the interference of the free trade pilot zone and national information consumption pilot policy in the same period.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the enhancing effect of payment technology on household consumption resilience varies according to the city's population dynamics and logistics service capacity,and is more pronounced in population-expanding cities and first-tier logistics cities.The results of the mechanism test show that:on the one hand,payment technology enhances household consumption resilience by strengthening consumption capacity and increasing total consumption;on the other hand,payment technology enhances household consumption resilience by increasing the category of consumer goods and enriching the consumption structure.Among them,diversification of consumption structure is the main channel and expansion of total consumption is the secondary channel

关 键 词：支付科技 家庭消费韧性 消费高质量发展 

分 类 号：F279.33[经济管理—企业管理]