考虑减排对能源需求潜在影响的沿海城市碳减排路径动态优化  

Dynamic Optimization of Carbon Reduction Pathways in Coastal Metropolises Considering Hidden Influence of Decarbonization on Energy Demand

作　　者：肖银璟 张迪[2] 魏娟 葛睿 陈达伟 杨桂兴 叶志亮 XIAO Yinjing;ZHANG Di;WEI Juan;GE Rui;CHEN Dawei;YANG Guixing;YE Zhiliang(School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;National Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Beijing 100031,China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海200240 [2]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082 [3]国家电力调度控制中心,北京100031 [4]国家电网新疆电力有限公司,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报》2024年第5期600-609,I0001,I0002,共12页Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51977062)资助项目。

摘　　要：制定合理的沿海城市碳减排规划是实现全球碳目标的关键环节.碳减排将改变城市气候并影响能源需求,这两者都会影响碳减排路径的优化结果.现有扩容规划模型考虑了直接减排贡献并能解决大部分能源系统长期碳减排路径规划问题,但新型电力系统的建设也会通过改变热岛强度等微气候因素间接影响碳排放.考虑碳排放和热排放变化对空调等负荷需求的潜在影响机理,结合扩容规划与碳排放峰值预测,给出沿海城市碳减排路径动态优化方法.以上海浦东地区作为算例,证实所提方法能有效降低碳减排估计成本,并根据仿真结果对沿海城市碳减排提出建议.Setting a reasonable carbon reduction plan in coastal metropolises is the key part to reach the global carbon target.Carbon reduction will change urban climate and influence energy demand,both of which affect the optimization results of carbon reduction pathways.Current generation expansion optimization models consider direct abatement contribution and solve most problems of planning for long-term carbon emission reduction in energy systems.However,the construction of new type power systems also indirectly impacts carbon emissions by changing microclimate factors such as heat island intensity.By combining generation expansion with carbon emission prediction model,the proposed approach in this paper considers the hidden mechanism of carbon and heat emission change on air-conditioning loads and dynamically optimizes the carbon reduction pathways in coastal metropolises.Taking Pudong Area in Shanghai as an example,the estimated cost of carbon reduction is reduced by the proposed approach.Some suggestions for the carbon reduction in coastal metropolises are made according to the simulation results.

关 键 词：动态优化 碳减排 扩容规划 微气象 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]