基于SEEA的绿色GDP核算相关性及预测分析  

Correlation and Predictive Analysis of Green GDP Accounting Based on System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting

作　　者：董涵 邹明华 李露 李艳 Dong Han;Zou Minghua;Li Lu;Li Yan(School of Information Science&Technology,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou,Fujian 363105,China;School of Computing and Information Science,Fuzhou Institute of Technology,Fuzhou,Fujian 350506,China;School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou Institute of Technology,Fuzhou,Fujian 350506,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学嘉庚学院信息科学与技术学院,福建漳州363105 [2]福州理工学院计算与信息科学学院,福建福州350506 [3]福州理工学院经济管理学院,福建福州350506

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2024年第2期187-195,204,共10页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目“基于稳定性分析的修改引力理论宇宙动力学演化研究”(JAT210609);厦门大学嘉庚学院校级科研孵化项目(PY2023L01)。

摘　　要：[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。[Objective]The interaction between environmental variables and economy was determined.The relationship between green GDP(GGDP)and GDP and future trend were studied,and the feasibility of replacing GDP with GGDP as a policy indicator was analyzed in order to promote the implementation of sustainable development.[Methods]Based on system of integrated environmental and economic accounting(SEEA),the correlations between environmental factors and GDP were determined for six representative countries differing in economic structure,development level,and policy system.A univariate linear regression equation was used to fit and analyze the GDP and GGDP of each country.The ARIMA,Holt-Winters,and grayscale GM(1,1)models were used to predict and analyze the GGDP and GDP data,and the optimal prediction results were analyzed by comparing the model errors.[Results]In the early stage of economic development,GDP showed a negative correlation with GGDP and environment.With the improvement of sustainable economic structure,the negative correlation gradually eased,and finally achieved recovery,showing a U-shaped trend.The results of the predictive analysis showed that the ARIMA model was best for predicting GDP,and the Holt-Winters model was best for predicting GGDP.Both GDP and GGDP showed a growth trend,but the growth rate of GGDP was not as fast as GDP.[Conclusion]It is suggested that,combined with China’s actual situation,China’s economic accounting indicator should shift from GDP to GGDP,and should increase environmental and economic investment,thereby achieving sustainable economic,social,and environmental development,and building a resource-saving and environment-friendly sustainable development society.

关 键 词：绿色GDP(GGDP) 相关性分析 可持续性理念 未来预测 环境与经济核算体系(SEEA) 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]